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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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040 FXUS61 KBUF 160635 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 235 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure draped across New York State will slowly drift east to New England through Friday. This will keep fair weather in place through most of Friday...with just a chance of showers and thunderstorms reaching far western New York later in the day. A large...slow moving storm system will then track across the region and bring periodic rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms Friday night through Monday...with locally heavy rainfall and a few stronger storms possible over the weekend. Otherwise temperatures will remain near to above normal through the weekend...before falling below normal early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure draped across western New York will gradually drift across central and eastern New York overnight...while a vertically stacked storm system drops across the Upper Mississippi Valley. Some high clouds well out ahead of this next system will continue to spill across far western New York overnight...with fair dry weather otherwise continuing. Radiational cooling may allow for some patchy fog to develop within the Southern Tier river valleys and (to a lesser extent) east of Lake Ontario overnight...with overnight lows ranging from the mid 50s across the far interior of the Southern Tier and Lewis County to the lower to mid 60s across the lake plains of western New York. On Friday the surface high will drift out across New England...while the aforementioned...increasingly expansive storm system slowly makes its way across the Upper Great Lakes. Out ahead of this system broad upper level ridging will crest across our region during the morning...before sliding east into eastern New York/western New England during the afternoon. The combination of lingering plentiful dry air and subsidence attendant to the upper level ridge should help to keep our region dry through the midday to early afternoon hours...with just a general west to east increase in mid and high cloud cover that will be most pronounced west of the Genesee Valley. As the upper ridge axis slides further east during the afternoon... a continued increase in moisture out ahead of the approaching low will result in mid and high cloud cover continuing to increase and lower from west to east. Coupled with daytime heating and the arrival of some weak lift on the eastern periphery of the low...this may allow for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across far western New York during the late afternoon and early evening hours...though coverage should remain on the limited side through 22/23z. With respect to high temperatures...the warm airmass out ahead of the low and a modest south to southeasterly low level flow will allow for another warm day...with highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s across far western New York to the mid to upper 80s across much of the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region. Friday night the center of the large storm system will make its way into northern Lower Michigan...and in the process will push its attendant warm front into our region...with this latter feature roughly making it to about the south shore of Lake Ontario by 12z Saturday. This boundary will be accompanied by a surge of GOMEX- based moisture attendant to a 30+ knot low southerly level jet that will push precipitable water values up into the 1.5-2 inch range. At the same time...isentropic upglide along/ahead of the warm front...convergence at the nose of the low level jet...and a broadly diffluent flow aloft will all help to lift this deepening moisture and thereby lead to a round of showers and scattered thunderstorms that will work across the area from west to east through the course of the night. Given the quality of the forcing and moisture that looks to be in place have raised PoPs into the categorical range... with most of western New York likely to pick up a quarter to a half inch of rain before the warm frontal pcpn begins to wind down across far WNY late in the night. Otherwise it will be a notably warmer and more humid night...with lows ranging from the low-mid 60s east of Lake Ontario to the mid 60s to lower 70s elsewhere...and surface dewpoints rising into the lower to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The closed mid level low over the upper Great Lakes will gradually move east across the Great Lakes this weekend and become an open wave by late Sunday as it moves over the eastern Great Lakes. A weak vertically stacked low beneath the aforementioned mid-level feature will gradually move east across the Great Lakes throughout this time as well. An abundance of moisture will spill across the region as shown by PWAT values ranging between 1.5 and 1.75 inches throughout the entirety of the weekend. The combination of the moisture and the forcing aloft will support showers Sunday and Sunday, with a chance for some thunder as well. A few storms may become severe with the primary threat being damaging winds and heavy rain. This being said, there is a marginal risk for severe storms across much of the forecast area Saturday and a marginal risk for excessive rain both Saturday and Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Slow moving mid-level trough spread across the Atlantic Coast Monday, will support weak secondary cyclogenesis along the New England Coast. This will support chances for showers and thunderstorms to pull east out of the area throughout the day Monday. However, thunder chances will gradually wane from northwest to southeast as a cooler and more stable airmass arrives behind a slow approaching cold front. The mid-level trough axis will pull east out of the forecast area Monday night through Tuesday, supporting the plume of deeper moisture to gradually move east off the coastline. This will support a return of dry and seasonably cooler weather for the middle portion of the next week. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Expect fair dry weather to continue overnight...with just some increase in high clouds across far western New York. Flight conditions will be VFR...save for localized reductions in patchy fog within the Southern Tier river valleys and east of Lake Ontario. On Friday high pressure will slide off to our east...while the next storm system drops across the Upper Great Lakes and spreads increasing mid and high clouds across our area from west to east. Later Friday afternoon and early Friday evening the above system will get close enough to potentially trigger a few scattered showers and thunderstorms across far western New York...with dry VFR weather otherwise prevailing. Our weather will then trend steadily downhill Friday night as the center of the aforementioned low makes its way across northern Lower Michigan and pushes its attendant warm front into our region. This will result in a round of fairly widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms making its way across our region from west to east...with flight conditions lowering to lower-end VFR/MVFR across the lower elevations and MVFR/IFR across the higher terrain as the atmosphere moistens. Outlook... Saturday and Sunday...Occasional rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms with associated reductions to IFR/MVFR...and MVFR/VFR otherwise. Monday...MVFR/IFR ceilings with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday...Improvement to VFR. && .MARINE... A modest southeasterly to southerly flow will develop overnight and Friday as a warm front approaches the region, however wind speeds should remain less than 15 knots. Right out ahead of the warm front...southeasterlies may briefly freshen to 15 to 20 knots across central and eastern portions of Lake Ontario later Friday night and Saturday morning...however the offshore nature of the flow will direct the bulk of any greater wave action across Canadian waters. Following the warm frontal passage...a general south to southwest flow will ensue over the weekend, though winds should again generally remain below 15 knots. Of greater concern to marine interests will be the potential for scattered thunderstorms with locally higher winds and waves...with this beginning Friday afternoon across Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario, then spreading east across the rest of the region over the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR NEAR TERM...JJR SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...JJR MARINE...JJR