366
FXUS61 KBUF 060237
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1037 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will remain draped across the region tonight
with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A weak cold
front will cross the region early Saturday, resulting in afternoon
temperatures a degree or two cooler, yet still moderately humid.
High pressure crossing the region later Saturday and through the
remainder of the weekend will promote fair weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING/...
Regional radar shows a few areas of showers across the eastern
Great Lakes region this evening. A cold front is draped across
Lower Michigan with a narrow line of showers and thunderstorms
approaching Lake Erie. Thunderstorms of concern are located
across BGM forecast area, however an isolated thunderstorm
remains possible tonight.

Mesoanalysis shows 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE confined to the
Saint Lawrence Valley and Southern Tier to central NY late this
evening. Weak, elevated instability remains across the eastern
Lake Ontario region. An approaching mid level shortwave trough
and cold front will act as lifting mechanisms for additional
showers and thunderstorms overnight. The severe threat looks
very limited.

A shortwave and weak surface low will track into southern Quebec on
Saturday, with an associated cold front pushing east of our area
during the day. Saturday will be breezy and not quite as warm
and humid in the wake of this cold frontal passage. Outside of
a few lingering chances for some showers across the eastern Lake
Ontario and western Finger Lakes regions, the remainder of the
region should be rain-free.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
While there could be a couple leftover showers across the North
Country/Saint Lawrence Valley early Saturday evening attendant to
the departing weak surface low/cold front...Saturday night will
otherwise be dry and uneventful as high pressure and drier air over
the Ohio Valley noses northeastward across our region. Lows will be
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The aforementioned high will then continue to ridge northeastward
across New York State and into New England Sunday and Sunday night.
This will support continued largely dry and fair weather...though
lingering weak surface troughing could still support another
isolated shower across the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley
during Sunday. Otherwise Sunday`s highs on will range within a few
degrees of 80 in most locations...with lows Sunday night again in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Monday and Monday night the axis of the surface ridge will slip off
the New England coastline...while the next mid-level trough and
associated weak frontal system slides across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Upper Great Lakes. The developing southerly return flow
in between these features will help to pump warmer and more humid
air back into our region. As a result highs on Monday will climb
back to the mid 80s to lower 90s...with lows Monday night then only
falling to the mid 60s to lower 70s...all while surface dewpoints
make their way back into the mid to upper 60s. Meanwhile generally
dry weather will continue to prevail...though cannot rule out a few
isolated showers and storms along our southeastern periphery Monday
afternoon/evening in tandem with a passing shortwave.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The mid-level trough and its associated weak surface reflection will
then slide across our area Tuesday and Tuesday night. The continued
northward advection of warmth and moisture out ahead of this system
will send PWATs back up to between 1.5 and 2.0 inches during
Tuesday...and this in tandem with daytime heating and increasing
large-scale ascent will support the likelihood of another round of
showers and thunderstorms...with the best chances for these likely
coming between Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise it should be
very warm and humid again before the convection arrives on
Tuesday...with highs generally ranging through the 80s and surface
dewpoints running between 65 and 70.

Latest model consensus supports the initial trailing cold front from
this system crossing our area Tuesday night...with a weaker
secondary boundary then following suit during Wednesday. Coupled
with broad troughing aloft...this may allow some additional
scattered showers/isolated storms to persist through Wednesday.
Otherwise cooler and more comfortable air will filter back across
our region following the passage of the above cold fronts...with
highs Wednesday pulling back to the upper 70s/lower 80s...and lows
Wednesday night dipping back into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

After that...high pressure looks to build across the region
Thursday...before sliding out across New England on Friday. This
will result in generally dry weather to close out the work week...
with continued comfortable temperatures Thursday/Thursday night
giving way to warmer readings on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions will continue across the eastern Great
Lakes region late this evening. Showers with a low chance of
thunderstorms are likely across the region tonight. This humid
airmass will result in heavy rain in strong showers and
thunderstorms and may result in sudden drops in visibility.

A cold front is draped across Lower Michigan late this evening.
A narrow line of showers and thunderstorms will move into the
region the second half of the night. Residual instability and
moderate shear in a moist environment will continue the threat
for showers and storms overnight into Saturday morning. Overall,
VFR conditions will persist with the exception of MVFR/IFR
conditions at KJHW due to lowering ceilings and/or visibility.

The cold front will be east of western NY by early Saturday
morning and be east of the eastern Lake Ontario region by 18z
Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible with
better coverage east of KROC through Saturday afternoon.
Ceilings 3-5k feet will fade across western NY Saturday morning
and continue east of Lake Ontario through Saturday afternoon.


Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms
likely.
Wednesday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain light on the lower Great Lakes through tonight
with a weak pressure gradient in place. A cold front will cross the
region Saturday, with freshening southwest winds. Sustained winds
wind could near 20 knots for a time Saturday afternoon which may
necessitate some small craft headlines, mainly on the eastern end of
Lake Erie.

High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes Sunday and into
the start of next week. This will bring a period quiet conditions
through mid week with a weak pressure gradient favoring light winds
and limited waves. The light flow will allow for some local lake
breezes to form each day.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/HSK/Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...TMA