985
FXUS61 KBUF 032254
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
654 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and clouds east of Lake Ontario this evening will
clear out overnight as a cold front moves away from the region. An
area of high pressure will then bring dry and comfortable weather
for Independence Day. Heat and humidity will then build over the
weekend, with more unsettled weather early next week as a cold front
moves slowly south across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Radar imagery showing just a few scattered showers left east of Lake
Ontario this evening, with the more active thunderstorms now well
east of the area. Clouds and a few scattered showers will linger
through mid evening east of Lake Ontario before clearing.

High pressure and a surface ridge will start to build into the
region overnight, centering over WNY by Friday afternoon. This will
result in mainly clear skies tonight with lows in the low to upper
50s. The sfc high over the region will also result in a beautiful
4th of July holiday with mostly sunny skies, comfortable humidity
levels, light winds and temperatures in the low 70s for higher
terrain to near 80 for lower elevations away from the lakeshores.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid-level ridge axis centered across the upper Great Lakes Friday
night, will support surface high pressure to settle across New York
State. As the ridge advances eastward towards the Northeast through
Sunday, the corresponding surface high will advect east towards the
New England coastline. Meanwhile, the next mid-level trough will
follow up behind the ridge, supporting a surface to develop along an
existing cold front across the central Great Lakes Sunday before
traveling east towards the eastern Great Lakes. Initially, expect
calm and quiescent conditions to persist through Sunday with the
surface high and mid-level ridge overhead.

Two items of note: 1.) While most of the area will remain on the dry
side, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop across the western
Southern Tier (Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties) due to the
influences of the Lake Erie lake breeze boundary. 2.) After a cool
and drier start Friday night, warm air and moisture advection ahead
of the incoming system will begin to build Saturday and linger
through Sunday, which will reintroduce the warm muggy conditions
back in across Western and North Central New York Saturday and
Sunday. By Sunday, temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will result in heat index
values to flirt near Heat Advisory criteria, especially in the
warmer valleys of the Finger Lakes region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
After the initial trough sliding from the central Great Lakes Sunday
night into the eastern Great Lakes Monday, general broad troughing
will lie across the eastern Great Lakes through Thursday. With the
initial trough, a surface cold front will gradually sag south across
the region late Sunday night through Monday introducing showers and
thunderstorms to pass from northwest to southeast.

In the wake of the front, and with the general troughing pattern in
place overhead, cooler and drier air will advect into the region and
result in temperatures to trend towards normal for early to mid July.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes near the later
half of the week as the broad trough axis crosses the area and
supports a wavy warm front across the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR clouds and a few scattered showers will linger through
mid evening east of Lake Ontario. High pressure will then build into
the eastern Great Lakes overnight through Friday, with mainly clear
skies and VFR prevailing.

Outlook...

Friday night through Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night through Monday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR restrictions possible.

Tuesday...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds in the 15-20 knot range on Lake Ontario early this
evening behind an exiting cold front will produce very choppy
conditions. Winds and waves will then diminish starting later this
evening.

An area of high pressure will build into the region overnight and
Friday, resulting in weak winds over the lakes and little to no
waves for the Fourth of July holiday. Winds and waves will remain
below SCA levels through the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JJR
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/SW
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/SW