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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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605 FXUS61 KBUF 181801 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 201 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A much drier airmass will settle upon our region today and through much of the weekend. A stray shower this afternoon east of the Lakes as a secondary surface trough passes through the region, but no widespread rain showers until the middle of next week when summer`s humidity returns. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A mid level trough is across the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Surface high pressure over the Corn Belt region extends into the forecast area. Daytime heating and low level moisture below the trough has allowed for cumulus clouds to develop. There is a low chance (15-25%) that showers may form across the Niagara Frontier and the North Country through the late afternoon hours. The main mid-level trough axis will move east of the forecast area tonight. Light winds and clearing skies will result in radiational cooling tonight. Lows will reach the low to mid 50s with patchy fog. High pressure will continue to build across the region Friday. Daytime heating and low level moisture will result in cumulus cloud development, however there should be less coverage than today, Thursday. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s across the region. It will be another night of light winds and mostly clear skies, with high clouds entering the forecast area into Saturday. Troughing occurs across the Great Lakes Saturday. A southwest flow in the mid-levels will bring increasing moisture and warm air across the region. Dry conditions are expected with temperatures rising back into the 80s across most of the region. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Mid-level low pressure centered over the northern portions of the providence of Quebec Saturday night will continue to deepen and rotate eastward toward the Canadian Maritimes Sunday and Monday. At the surface, high pressure overhead of the region will continue to exit east toward the Atlantic coastline Saturday night, maintaining dry weather. A weak shortwave trough will traverse through the aforementioned longwave pattern Sunday, supporting a backdoor cold front to slide southeast across the forecast region Sunday afternoon. This front continues to look moisture starved, however despite this a few spotty showers can`t be ruled out, especially across the Niagara Frontier. This front will then stall across New York State Monday. While the area will remain mostly dry, a few afternoon showers will be possible with the frontal boundary overhead. The better activity Monday lies across the southeastern portions of the area from Allegany County to the Finger Lakes. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The longwave pattern across the CONUS will gradually shift moving further into the new workweek. This will come as a deep closed low slinks out of the Gulf of Alaska and towards the Pacific Northwest, causing a deeper amplification of the ridging over the Desert Southwest while downstream troughing remains over the Mississippi Valley. Reinforcing shortwave energy will concurrently propagate southeast out of central Canada and into the Great Lakes region, resulting in a broad, positively tilted trough replacing the zonal flow over much of the eastern half of the the Lower 48. This trough will allow a gradual northward advection of GOMEX based moisture into the Northeast. In terms of how this will impact the sensible weather across the eastern Great Lakes, the increasingly unstable environment will allow for a return to a much more unsettled pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. In general, chances will be highest across the interior in the afternoon hours each day when diurnal heating is at its strongest, while diminishing overnight and into the morning hours. PWATs near or exceeding 1.7" within this increasingly humid airmass will allow for periods of heavy rain, though there remains typical long range model discrepancies on how exactly the trough across the East will evolve which limits certainty in timing, placement and amounts. Temperatures Tuesday will top out in the low to mid 80s in most spots, while reaching the upper 70s and low 80s Wednesday and Thursday though with increased humidity. Overnight lows with range in the 60s each night. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR flight conditions are found across the region this afternoon. Some congested cu has resulted in a bkn deck of 030-040 across the Niagara Frontier and North Country. A stray shower is possible but the chance is low (15-24%.) Surface high pressure will build into the region tonight through Saturday. Light winds and mostly clear skies will result in VFR conditions through Saturday morning. Patchy fog is possible, mainly across valley locations and may approach KJHW and KOLE overnight. Confidence is low that it will reach the airports at this time. Outlook... Friday through Monday...VFR. Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible. Mainly VFR/MVFR. && .MARINE... High pressure over the Upper Mississippi valley this afternoon will slowly settle across all of the Great Lakes region today and through the weekend. There is a light northwest to north flow over the Lakes this morning, with waves a foot or so on the southern and southeastern shores of the lower Great Lakes. This flow will become light and variable tonight, with waves under a foot on the Lakes. The weak surface pressure gradient with the surface high will bring gentle to moderate breezes and negligible wave action through the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSK/Thomas NEAR TERM...HSK SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...PP AVIATION...HSK MARINE...HSK/Thomas