Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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511 FXUS61 KBUF 041754 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 154 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will drop to near the New York and Pennsylvania State line by this evening. A humid airmass along with the nearby frontal boundary will bring the threat for a shower or thunderstorm for some tonight into Friday. Another system will bring more showers and thunderstorms Friday night. Building high pressure will bring cooler and less humid conditions for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A weak cold front will continue to drift south across the region through this afternoon, eventually settling near the New York/Pennsylvania state line. There is a chance for a shower near the state line this afternoon, but with the axis of deeper moisture and instability south of the region would expect this activity to be isolated at best. Therefore, the expectation is that the region will be dry through this afternoon, but still remaining very warm and humid with most high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s, with a few upper 80s across the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes. Weak surface high pressure will settle across our region tonight, with fair, but muggy weather. The lack of a decent pressure gradient will result in light winds for this evening...slowing firework smoke dissipation. The lack of forcing with the weak surface high nearby will keep much of the region dry tonight. However there is still plenty of moisture within the boundary layer, and there are some hints that this mornings MCS over KS/MO may eject a subtle shortwave over our region tonight. Energy from this feature, along with weak instability of 100 to 200 J/KG could lend to a late spot shower or two, across far western New York. It will remain muggy and warm tonight with lows in the mid to upper 60s common. Some patches of fog are possible with dewpoints not much lower than the air temperature. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Southeasterly flow combined with consensus 850mb temps around +18C will result in warm weather Friday, with highs approaching 90F along the Lake Erie shoreline, Buffalo area, and the Genesee Valley. Meanwhile a potent shortwave will dig across the central Great Lakes, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. This will be supported by the passage of a couple frontal boundaries, DPVA, and the region being in the right entrance region of a jet streak. A few strong thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, but in general wind profiles will not be supportive of widespread severe weather. Following the passage of a cold front, Saturday will be breezy, especially across the lake plains where southwest winds will gust over 30 mph. Lingering chances of showers east of Lake Ontario on Saturday, but the rest of the area should be rain-free and cooler with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. High pressure across the Ohio Valley Saturday night will ridge into the region on Sunday. This will bring fair and generally pleasant weather to the region with comfortable humidity levels and lots of sunshine. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface ridging gives fairly high confidence that the area will see dry weather Sunday night and Monday. Southerly return flow will also bring a return to warmer weather for Monday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Showers and thunderstorms area possible Tuesday and Wednesday period as a mid level trough enters the region and a wave of low pressure tracks to our north bringing a cold front through the region. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR flight conditions will prevail into much of tonight. A weak frontal boundary will drop across the region this afternoon, stalling near the New York/Pennsylvania state line. Any showers this afternoon and evening along the front will likely stay just south of KJHW - KELZ. Convective complex moving out of the Ohio Valley may bring some scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm after 04z tonight which may linger across the region through Friday morning. Low confidence in how this area of precipitation impacts the region. Humid airmass in place along with light winds tonight could bring some fog if enough clearing takes place, but confidence is low so left fog out of the airfield forecasts for now. Outlook... Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Friday night...MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Saturday...Mainly VFR with decreasing chances for showers. Sunday and Monday...VFR. Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms likely. && .MARINE... A passing frontal boundary, followed by weak surface high pressure will result in a weak pressure gradient across the lower Great Lakes, with light winds and waves through tonight. Winds will shift out of the east Friday, then an enhanced southwest flow will develop across the lower Great Lakes with a period of Small Craft Advisory headlines possible. High pressure will build into the region Sunday, reducing the southwest flow on the lower Great Lakes. The surface high will move east Monday with a southerly flow favored. The pressure gradient will be light enough on both Sunday and Monday to allow for some local lake breezes to form. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...Thomas/TMA SHORT TERM...Apffel/Fries LONG TERM...Apffel/TMA AVIATION...TMA MARINE...TMA