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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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862 FXUS61 KBTV 130024 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 824 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and Saturday but no additional flooding is expected at this time. Seasonably warm temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s are expected Sunday through Tuesday ahead of a cold front on Wednesday that will bring another round of rainfall to the region. Following the frontal passage, a return of cooler and less humid air is expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 824 PM EDT Friday...While not impactful, a meteorologically interesting little event will be unfolding this evening. Showers are expected to blossom along the "cool" side of a quasi-stationary front to our southeast as an upper level trough swipes at us from the west. In coordination with WFO ALY and based on model guidance trends, we did increase rainfall through 2 AM into the 0.25" to 0.4" range in portions of southern Vermont. This area would find the rain beneficial. Farther north, moderate showers are less likely but will have to watch radar trends. Forecast soundings show very limited instability at cold temperatures to support thunder chances, so have removed thunderstorm chances. Previous Discussion... Scattered rain showers have developed across the region today in response to an upper level trough over the eastern Great Lakes leading to increased aloft. Taking a look at some mesoanalysis data, we do have around 500 J/kg of CAPE with decent effective shear of 30- 40 knots which could support an isolated thunderstorm or two. With PWATs around 1.3" to 1.5", we could see a burst of moderate to heavy rain with any thunderstorms that develop but additional flooding threats are unlikely given the isolated nature of the storms this afternoon. With the loss of heating this evening, showers and thunderstorms are largely expected to dissipate although a few showers may linger through the overnight period. With some clearing in the skies expected tonight, widespread fog is expected to develop given recent rainfall and light winds. Fog coverage will largely depend on skies clearing but where skies clear it`s feasible to think visibilities could drop well below 1 mile at times during the pre-dawn hours. Saturday could be an interesting day across the North Country with the latest run of the CAMs indicating we could have more coverage in showers and thunderstorms. An upper level low will pass well to the north of us but the trough axis is likely a trigger for the development of a few showers and thunderstorms. The HREF is currently showing mean CAPE values in the afternoon of 1000-1500 range which could support more intense thunderstorms as well as increased precipitation rates. These will need to be monitored closely to ensure none of these storms pass over the areas that received copious amounts of rainfall over the past few days but the flood threat looks minimal as it`ll take 1-1.25 inches of rain in an hour to produce any new flash flooding. The threat for thunderstorms will end quickly as we head into the evening hours with another round of widespread fog expected again Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 309 PM EDT Friday...High pressure will build in throughout the day on Sunday, allowing temperatures to climb an additional degree or two over those seen on Saturday. The current forecast would result in us hitting 90 in a large portion of the Champlain and Connecticut river valleys, with temperatures a few degrees cooler at higher elevations. The western parts of our CWA will also be several degrees cooler. Late Sunday night, we do see the potential for a line of showers to come through along a weak shortwave. These showers will not produce significant precipitation. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 309 PM EDT Friday...The first half of the week brings the potential for a heat wave, with temperatures at or near 90 for three straight days in valley locations. These high temperatures will be combined with high surface moisture content to produce uncomfortable to possibly risky conditions. Please ensure you are taking appropriate precautions to avoid heat stress. We`ll finally get a welcome relief from the heat and humidity as a cold front sweeps through Northern New York Wednesday or Wednesday Night. The front will bring widespread shower activity, but the rapid speed of the system means we are not anticipating any additional flooding with this system. Current NBM probabilities show less than a 25% chance of any location receiving even a half inch or rain. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...Tricky forecast for climatologically favored IFR sites overnight, with possible stratus and/or fog at SLK and MPV mainly after 04Z. Other locations are expected to see mainly VFR conditions through the period aside from any visibility reductions from isolated to scattered showers. At MPV (and RUT), a plume of mid level moisture and possibly brief moderate rain will move northward most likely impacting these sites between 04 and 08Z. If this pans out, increased surface moisture and calm winds will support fog between 08Z and 12Z at MPV. Meanwhile at SLK skies are primed to be mainly clear to start the night, and with forcing for clouds/showers set up to the east, there may be a window for dense fog to develop. Given the uncertainty, a tempo during the 04Z to 08Z period of 2SM was used. Fog at other sites is relatively unlikely with chances too low to mention. As the sun rises on Saturday, any fog will quickly dissipate with VFR conditions expected thereafter. We will see chances for showers and maybe even a thunderstorm or two on Saturday, especially after 18Z. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 310 PM EDT Friday...Rivers continue to fall with just the Barton River at Coventry remaining in flood stage. Additional rainfall from showers and thunderstorms today and Saturday may drop 0.25" to 0.5" locally but shouldn`t produce any additional river flooding. Visit water.noaa.gov for the latest river hydrographs and current flood related products. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Clay/Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Langbauer LONG TERM...Langbauer AVIATION...Clay/Kutikoff HYDROLOGY...Team BTV