Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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618 FXUS61 KBTV 042302 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 702 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and mostly dry forecast will prevail heading into the weekend, but unfortunately the threat for scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms returns on Saturday. Temperatures will continue to be above normal for both the highs and lowers with increasing levels of humidity, especially Friday night into Saturday. Slightly cooler and less humid air returns by Sunday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 659 PM EDT Thursday...Very minimal changes with this update as the forecast remains on track this evening. Continue with some 15-24% PoPs overnight tonight into Friday for the shower potential mentioned below. Continue to think patchy fog could develop across the Connecticut River Valley and other isolated valley spots. Previous discussion below: Previous discussion...Fcst challenge tonight into Friday is tracking decaying s/w energy over the Ohio Valley into our region, along with associated pocket of mid level moisture and the potential for a few light rain showers. Guidance takes the energy over the northern Ohio Valley and tracks it directly overhead late tonight into Friday, along with area of mid level moisture, which is present on water vapor imagery this aftn. Based on upstream radar coverage have placed some token schc 15-24% pops into the fcst overnight into Friday to cover this potential. Not anticipating a wetting rainfall or widespread coverage, mostly a few light rain showers or sprinkles are possible, with areas of virga likely. Temps tonight hold in the upper 50s to near 70F in the CPV/SLV. A few areas of patchy fog possible in the CT River Valley, but given mid level clouds and mild temps areal cover wl be minimal. For Friday the lake breezy convergence or trrn could induce a light shower, but forcing is weak and moisture is minimal, so once again coverage and potential is small. Progged 925mb temps are very similar to today with values in the 22-24C, so thinking highs 82-89F. Another very warm and muggy night is anticipated on Friday night as southerly winds continue and dwpts hover in the 60s to locally near 70 possible in the evening. Better dynamics associated with moisture/warm air advection arrive after midnight, so have continued with chc to likely pops overspreading the region on Friday night into Sat morning. CAM guidance does indicate some elevated instability with MU CAPE values in the 400- 800 J/kg range, so embedded rumbles of thunder are possible, especially within the heavier convective elements aft midnight. Localized brief heavy downpours, some lightning and isolated gusty winds up to 35 mph are possible with the stronger activity. Lows generally in the 60s to lower 70s locally here in the CPV. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...For the third Saturday in a row, it looks like we will see another round of widespread rain showers. A weakening upper level low is expected to be absorbed into the mean h500 fields while a weak surface front shears out across the North Country. This is expected to result in weak surface forcing and weak dynamic forcing which should yield rather inefficient rainfall processes through the day although PWATS will be well above 1.75". With all that being said, rainfall totals will be unimpressive with much of the area seeing between a quarter to half of inch of rainfall although portions of the western slopes could see upwards to three quarters of an inch of rain. Models do suggest we will be in more of a showery regime which means it likely won`t rain all day but rather on-and-off throughout the day. Forecast soundings show a bit of tall and skinny CAPE which could lead to a few rumbles of thunder and may enhance rainfall rates briefly but thunderstorms aren`t expected to be widespread by any means. The shearing frontal boundary is expected to slide east of the region Saturday night which will bring an end to rainfall across the North Country. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...Sunday is shaping to be a nicer day across the North Country although lingering cloud cover and a few showers cannot be ruled out. Surprisingly, it`ll be a few degrees cooler than Saturday behind the "cold front" that fell apart as it tracked across the North Country. Dewpoints on Sunday will remain in the lower 60s which will lead to heat indices just shy of 90 degrees so just be aware of some heat and humidity on Sunday. Monday will be a warm and mostly sunny day across the region. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s with a few places approaching 90 degrees in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys. Dewpoints again will remain in the lower 60s with heat indices warming into the lower 90s for some locations. The NWS heat risk shows us getting into the moderate range indicating individuals who are sensitive to heat could experience impacts. As always during the summer months, be sure to hydrate and take breaks if planning to be outdoors. Wet weather returns Tuesday into Wednesday although timing remains a little uncertain. A deepening trough over the central US is expected to eject a potent shortwave across the Northeast which should bring in a nice slug of rainfall. While timing is uncertain, confidence is high in this system moving through the region given consistent trends amongst the global and deterministic guidance. PWATs ahead of this system are expected to surge into the 1.75" to 1.9" rain so it`s feasible to think we could see periods of moderate to heavy rain as this system move through the region. Showery and seasonably cool weather is expected to follow for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...High confidence of VFR conditions prevails for the next 6 to 12 hours at all 7 taf sites. A few to scattered fair wx cumulus clouds will continue across our aviation airspace this afternoon with southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. This evening additional mid level clouds will advect from southwest to northeast across our region with light terrain driven winds under 6 knots. There is a low probability <15% chance of fog and IFR or lower conditions at MPV between 07-11z on Friday morning. Otherwise, a few light showers are possible overnight, but no flight restrictions are expected. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Taber/Storm SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Taber