659
FXUS61 KBTV 140506
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
106 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon will
diminish this evening for a quiet, yet mild and foggy night. Hot
temperatures up to the lower 90s are once again expected Sunday
through Tuesday along with increasing humidity, before a cold front
on Wednesday brings another round of rainfall to the region.
Following the frontal passage, a return of cooler and less humid air
is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Sunday...Clear skies prevail as fog develops in
the valleys across our forecast area tonight. No major changes
necessary as forecast is on track. In some spots, temperatures
are dropping slightly quicker than anticipated, but overall
still expect lows in the 50s and 60s. Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion below:
A modest mid-level shortwave passing north of the Canadian
border combined with our continued humid airmass was enough to
spark some showers and thunderstorms off the lake breeze this
morning which drifted into Vermont and intensified to just below
severe limits earlier this afternoon. As of writing this,
lightning has become much more isolated to nearly none, but
scattered showers continue to shift eastward through eastern
Vermont. This activity should continue east of the region while
waning through sunset and a quiet yet muggy night is expected
thereafter. Fog is once again likely in the favored river
valleys after midnight through sunrise, and lows will be similar
to last night ranging through the 60s with locally some
mid/upper 50s in the Adirondacks.

For Sunday, a weak ridge aloft and surface high pressure will keep
the region dry. A very isolated shower can`t be ruled out, but the
chance of that is 10% or less and not worth worrying about. 925mb
temps will once again be on the rise to neat +23C so widespread
highs in the mid to upper 80s is likely with some lower 90s
possible, especially in the lower Connecticut River Valley.
Dewpoints will be slightly lower than today in the upper 50s to mid
60s so heat indices won`t be in the dangerous category. Of additional
note will be the chance for some Canadian wildfire smoke to be aloft
towards evening based on the latest HRRR forecast. No pollutants are
expected at the ground, but may make for an interesting sunset.

Finally for Sunday night, another weak to moderate shortwave is
progged to move into the eastern Great Lakes increasing the chance
for showers across northern New York after midnight. Elsewhere the
night should be dry with increasing clouds leading to lows warmer
than the previous night in the mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...The Champlain and Connecticut River
Valleys could very well be in the middle of a heatwave by Monday.
Models have been very consistent placing a strong high pressure over
New England, with 850 temperatures reaching up to 25c on Monday.
Humidity levels will exasperate the problem, leading to a concerning
situation in terms of heat risk. We are also tracking the chance of
showers or thunderstorms. The thermodynamic profile is favorable for
development, but we will lack the shear required to truly allow for
severe storm development.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...Our heat will peak on Tuesday, with
temperatures climbing an addition degree or two with dewpoints at or
above 70 in many locations, this combination would push heat index
values above 95F and reach advisory criteria. Tuesday is also more
favorable for thunderstorms than the previous days as our shear
profile increases.

By Wednesday afternoon, we will get our long awaited cold front,
knocking 10F off our temperatures. A line of showers will sweep by
along with the front, with pwats up near 1.75" these storms will be
efficient rain makers and we are under a marginal ERO for the day.
The good news is the storms will move by quickly, and we`ll be a
week removed from the recent flooding giving the soils and rivers
some time to recover. Following the cold front, our temperatures
will inch back up but we should have a very pleasant weekend in
store.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Main focus of aviation forecast tonight
will be the fog and mist developing across the valleys of the
forecast area. SLK has already started to go to IFR in
visibility and briefly ceilings. We expect MPV to join SLK in
this shortly, and other sites where this is possible will be PBG
and EFK. Elsewhere, VCFG is forecast at most. Fog will likely
end around 11-13Z. Winds light overnight will become
southwesterly for most during the day Sunday, remaining less
than 10 knots for the next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance RA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Taber/Storm
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Storm