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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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111 FXUS64 KBRO 102309 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 609 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Key Messages: * Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will wane in coverage this evening and tonight * Another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected on Thursday * Temperatures will hold to near seasonable levels and maybe even slightly below average through Thursday * Outside of any convection, marine conditions will remain favorable through Thursday Weakness in the 500 mb height pattern coupled with residual moisture left behind from post-tropical cyclone (PTC) Beryl and interactions with a persistent sea breeze will result in continued unsettled weather through the short term forecast period (or through Thursday). Latest radar scans from the KBRO Doppler Radar and Mosaic MRMS Radar continues to depict scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. A Special Weather Statement (SPS) was issued for southern Hidalgo County earlier as winds at McAllen International Airport gusted to 48 mph from earlier thunderstorms. A few Flood Advisories have been issued across the area as well. So far, the corridor from McAllen into Weslaco and Mercedes have been the hardest hit with incessant rainfall from the slow moving thunderstorms. Amounts are ranging between 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts. A bit more expected over the next few hours. Shower and thunder (convective) activity will gradually wane in coverage and intensity this evening before ending tonight. That said, for tonight, expect for warm and very muggy conditions to continue. Overnight lows are progged to be in the mid to upper 70s. There is an slight/isolated chance for a shower or storm overnight especially near the Texas Coast. Some patchy mist/fog is also possible for tonight given the copious amounts of low level moisture and relatively light winds. On Thursday, another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected once again given the combination of abundant moisture left behind from Beryl, interactions with a sea breeze, and a nearby shortwave. The main threats from any showers or thunderstorms will be lightning and flooding due to heavy (torrential) rainfall in this tropical, moisture-laden environment. The GFS and NAM models continue to depict precipitable water (PWAT) values between 2-2.50 inches which is +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal (supportive of very efficient rainfall production). With the mean LCL-EL (cloud layer) winds expected to be between 5-10 kts, these storms will be slow movers adding to the risk for flooding. Remember to avoid flooded roadways and turn around, don`t drown!. Have categorical (55-80%) PoPs for Thursday. The setup could be very similar to today where showers and storms develop during the late morning hours and persist into the afternoon hours. Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage and intensity during the evening hours on Thursday. Temperatures may fall slightly below normal depending on the timing of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures are forecasted to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s (again slightly below normal). Thursday night will continue warm and muggy with overnight lows in the mid 70s to near 80F degrees. Dewpoint values will be at similar levels. That said,, there is the chance for some patchy mist/fog to develop Thursday night into Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Deep tropical moisture and an approaching inverted trough will influence the region through Friday, supporting unsettled weather. Friday rain chances will remain elevated in the 30-50 percent range, some of which could be heavy. Rain chances should taper off on Saturday, followed by more limited chances the rest of the forecast from Sunday through next Wednesday. We expect slightly drier conditions this weekend with models showing more substantial drying early next week as the mid-level trough shifts inland/west and 500 mb ridging builds over the lower Mississippi Valley and extends back into East Texas. We expect a gradual warming trend through the period as rain chances and cloud cover decrease, with high temps ranging from the mid to upper 90s to near 100 degrees, with a few more 100 marks possible each day. Low temps will range from the 70s to near 80. Heat index values will generally climb into the 105 to 110 degree range each afternoon, and could briefly climb above 110 in some areas Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Overnight showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast, especially as we head through the day Thursday. Any heavy shower or thunderstorms could lead to MVFR and possible IFR conditions. While winds are expected to remain light out of the southeast, stronger gusts will be possible in thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Tonight through Thursday night... Outside of shower and thunderstorm chances, marine conditions will be favorable through Thursday with light to moderate winds and low seas. Friday through Monday night...We are forecasting light to moderate southeast to south winds and low to moderate seas along the lower Texas Coast through the period with surface high pressure generally in control. We anticipate neither Small Craft Should Exercise Caution nor Small Craft Advisory conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 90 79 93 / 30 60 30 30 HARLINGEN 75 88 75 93 / 20 60 30 40 MCALLEN 78 91 78 94 / 20 70 20 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 91 77 93 / 30 70 30 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 86 81 88 / 30 50 30 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 88 77 91 / 20 50 30 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....54 AVIATION...68