348
FXUS64 KBRO 111821
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
121 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal scattered showers and
thunderstorms across Deep South Texas. High precipitable water
values associated with an influx of tropical moisture, daytime
heating, and weak forcing for ascent will result in increasing
coverage of activity through the early evening hours. While severe
weather is not expected, the main threats through the early evening
hours will be locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning. We`ll
have to keep a close eye on outflow boundaries through the afternoon
hours, which may result in additional thunderstorm development this
afternoon. Given the antecedent conditions where portions of the
region have received locally heavy rain, minor flooding issues may
arise should any slow-moving showers/thunderstorms develop over
these areas.

Otherwise, expect mild and humid nights with low temperatures
ranging from the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. Increased cloud cover
and precipitation chances will keep high temperatures near to
slightly below normal for mid July with highs mostly in the low
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The mid-level ridge across the Southeast works back towards the
northern Gulf, diminishing rain chances again late this weekend
through late next week. The last chance to fill any rain buckets
may be Saturday afternoon along the sea breeze. PWATs dip below
1.6 inches for most of the week, before climbing once again
Wednesday and Thursday towards 1.9 to 2 inches. While this may not
equate to better rain chances, it will at least drive higher heat
indices late week.

High temperatures gain a degree or two each afternoon as well
through the long term period, beginning with near seasonal mid to
upper 90s Saturday, warming to above normal upper 90s to low 100s
by Thursday. Heat Advisories may be needed mid to late week as the
combination of increasing humidity and above normal temperatures
will push Heat Indices towards 110 degrees each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The latest radar imagery depicts increasing coverage of SHRA/TSRA
across the region this afternoon, including the terminals.
Periods of reduced visibility due to locally heavy rain, gusty
winds, and occasional lightning will be the main threats through
the early evening hours. Convection should wane with the loss of
daytime heating and result in rain-free conditions overnight, but
additional activity may develop by mid to late morning tomorrow.
Otherwise, expect generally VFR conditions through the forecast
period outside of any showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Tonight through Friday night...Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas will prevail through the period as the region
remains under the influence of high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening will result in reduced visibility due to
heavy rain, lightning, and higher winds/seas. Additional showers
and thunderstorms may develop over the waters once again on
Friday.

Saturday through next Thursday...High pressure remains generally
anchored to the northern Gulf of Mexico, maintaining light to
moderate southeasterly onshore flow through the forecast period.
Expect generally favorable marine conditions with seas of 2 to 3
feet. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be on
Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  92  80  94 /  20  30  10  10
HARLINGEN               75  92  76  95 /  20  40  10  10
MCALLEN                 78  94  79  97 /  30  40  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  93  77  96 /  50  50  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  87  82  89 /  20  20  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  90  78  92 /  20  30   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...22-Garcia