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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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725 FXUS64 KBRO 121724 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 PWATs are expected to remain above 2 this afternoon as deep tropical moisture remains in the area. Weak forcing and ample instability could the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. Given the high PWAT values, some of these showers and thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall. Rain chances are expected to decrease overnight as the atmosphere becomes more stable, though some streamer showers could be possible along the coast Saturday morning. Some lingering tropical moisture Saturday could support some isolated showers and thunderstorm Saturday afternoon. The anticipated cloud cover should help keep temperatures around normal today, with high temperatures expected to be in the low 90s. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected Saturday, with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. Overnight low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 70s to low 80s tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 500 mb high pressure, initially centered over the Florida Panhandle, will ease west and become recentered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico during the period, becoming an even more dominant weather feature for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. This will produce dry weather across the BRO CWFA, giving the area a chance to dry out after rains from Alberto and post-Beryl. Temperature-wise, a gradual rise in daytime highs is expected, with near normal values increasing to slightly above normal as the period progresses. Calculated heat indices suggest that a HEAT ADVISORY may be needed for portions of the region on Wednesday, with a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT sufficing for the remainder of && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 The latest radar and satellite imagery depict widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across the region. The main threats with any activity will be lightning, locally heavy rain, and gusty winds. Similar to previous days, activity should wane with the loss of daytime heating later this evening. Isolated showers may develop near BRO and the coast late tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Otherwise, expect VFR to prevail through the period with light souteast winds generally below 10 knots. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 High pressure over the Northern Gulf will support light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight seas through the short term period. Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Saturday, with the highest concentrations expected this afternoon. (Saturday Night through Thursday) Persistent high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will produce light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the Lower Texas Coast through the period. Neither Small Craft Should Exercise Caution nor Small Craft Advisory are likely to be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 93 79 93 79 / 30 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 92 76 94 75 / 40 10 10 0 MCALLEN 93 79 96 79 / 40 20 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 78 96 77 / 40 30 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 88 82 / 20 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 91 78 / 30 10 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...60 LONG TERM....Tomaselli AVIATION...22-Garcia