535
FXUS64 KBRO 181134 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
634 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A mid to upper level trough will continue to dig south into the
Lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a cold front across
the Hill Country will drift southward then stall well north of our
region. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected
across Deep South Texas through Friday. While ample surface moisture
and instability may support isolated showers and thunders along the
sea breeze this afternoon and Friday afternoon, drier mid level flow
will likely limit convection through the period.

High temperatures today and Friday are expected to remain in the mid
to upper 90s. However, a few locations could reach the triple
digits, especially across the Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices will
likely remain below Heat Advisory criteria rising to between 105 to
110 degrees this afternoon and Friday afternoon. Lows tonight will
range from the mid 70s to the low 80s. Patchy fog will be possible
early this morning and again late tonight, dissipating by the mid
morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The mid-level ridge across the Four Corners edges further westward
into the weekend as low pressure across the central CONUS deepens
and sinks south through Texas into mid next week. This will
gradually increase rain chances next week. NBM POPs range from 15
to 20 percent through Sunday, increasing to 20 to 30 percent
Monday, near 40 to 50 percent Tuesday, and 40 to 60 percent
Wednesday. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday reach slightly above
normal into the upper 90s and low 100s, with more seasonal
temperatures next week. Heat Indices may reach 105 to 109 degrees
each afternoon, especially Monday through Wednesday as humidity
increases, falling shy of any Heat Advisory criteria at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Light and variable winds with mostly high clouds prevail across
Deep South Texas early this morning. Have included a TEMPO at HRL
until 13Z for some patchy fog with MVFR visibilities. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a low
chance of isolated showers/storms, but confidence is too low to
mention in the TAF at this time. Otherwise, light east to
southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots will prevail later this
morning into the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Now through Friday...Favorable conditions will prevail through the
period with high pressure across the Gulf. Light to moderate
southeast winds and low seas are expected along the Lower Texas
Coast through Friday.

Friday Night through Wednesday...A weak pressure gradient is
expected late this week into next week across coastal waters, with
light to moderate southeasterly onshore flow and low seas. The
chance of showers and thunderstorms gradually increases next week,
with winds and seas higher near any thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             95  79  96  79 /  10   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               95  76  96  75 /  10   0  20   0
MCALLEN                 99  79 100  79 /  10   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         99  77  99  77 /  10   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  82  89  82 /  10   0  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     91  77  93  78 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...63-KC