Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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430 FXUS64 KBRO 051131 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 631 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Key Messages: - Hot and Dry with elevated Heat Indices Today - Low Rip Current Risk today; Moderate Risk Saturday 500mb ridge over NE Texas is at its peak intensity today before splitting with one center shifting east as a strong upper trough moves over the Plains. This splitting or weakness in the ridge will open the door for Hurricane Beryl to turn northwest once it enters the Gulf of Mexico late today or tonight. In the meantime, mostly sunny and continued hot today with heat indices nearing 110 degrees in several locations. A Special Weather Statement will be issued to emphasize the heat risk which will be in the moderate to major risk for heat related impacts. Thermal trough over NE Mexico will provide another breezy few hours this afternoon as the local pressure gradient peaks providing wind gusts 25-30 mph. Tonight the region will see fair, warm and sultry conditions with lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Saturday looks not as hot as Friday as the mid-level ridge weakens and shifts eastward. Temperatures trends are just a few degrees lower with peak heat indices at 108 degrees. As for rainfall, models show a weak sea breeze with pops only at 15-20 percent along and east of I-69E. Confidence is low and with the region on western of the outer circulation of Beryl subsidence may win out keeping inland areas dry with any shower activity remaining over the Gulf waters. Beach forecast remains nice today with low surf and light to moderate winds. Rip current risk is low today, and looks to increase to moderate Saturday as models are suggesting an increase in swell period over 10 seconds. We will continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Beryl as it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Make sure you are relying on trusted sources of information for updates, such as the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, media stations, local/county officials, etc, over the next several days. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Beryl remains a formidable hurricane as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula near Cozumel/Tulum. Beryl is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico sometime tonight and continue to move northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Hurricane watches are likely to be issued sometime later this morning. Moving into Sunday, the rain chances will start to increase as Beryl moves closer the Lower Texas Coast. Current expected landfall could be anywhere between Northeastern Mexican coast and the Mid Texas Coast. While the current intensity estimation has Beryl at landfall as a category 1 hurricane. There is still some possibility of error with the models as the track has been slightly shifting more northward and the models have struggled to capture its intensity as well. Beryl is expected to bring plenty of rainfall to the region around 4 to 6 inches with isolated 6 to 8 inches possible. A reasonable worst case could even be up to 10 inches. Higher amounts are more likely along the coast. Depending on the timing of the expected northward turn, there could be a sharp gradient in the rainfall amounts. This has resulted in WPC placing Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in a slight risk of Excessive Rainfall. Rainfall is not the only hazard that will be associated with Beryl. High risk of Rip Current, storm surge, damaging to destructive coastal wave action including coasting flooding, high surf, and tropical storm force winds. Beryl could bring some weak short lived tornadoes to the area as well. SPC has most of the area in a marginal risk currently. Once onshore, Beryl will weaken quickly and move further inland. By late Tuesday into Wednesday the remnants of Beryl should be out of the area and the hazards will diminish. However there will still be active weather through Thursday that could see some additional rainfall. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 MVFR ceilings near KMFE should be breaking up between 13-14z with VFR prevailing for all areas the remainder of the day. Morning Light southeast winds increase to moderate speeds with gusts of 20-25 knots for the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Today through Saturday...Another 24-36 hours of favorable conditons before steady deterioration over the Gulf waters beyond Saturday. Hurricane Beryl passes over the northern Yucatan Peninsula today and emerges over the Gulf Saturday morning. Light southeast winds today and tonight turn east to northeast Saturday with only a slight increase in winds. Seas remain rather low today and most of Saturday. As Beryl moves into South Central Gulf of Mexico Saturday afternoon seas and long period (10+ second)swells are likely to approach the outer water by sunset Saturday. Not expecting any significant shower activity today and not much tonight. Saturday there maybe showers increasing late in the afternoon. Saturday Night through Thursday...Moderate to strong southeasterly flow for the later part of the weekend with seas building to high as Beryl approaches the Lower Texas Coast. Small Craft Advisory will needed at this time. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will become more likely with time as Beryl continues to approach the Lower Texas Coast. Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate by Saturday night and become hazardous by Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 79 94 80 / 0 0 20 30 HARLINGEN 97 75 95 77 / 0 0 20 20 MCALLEN 100 78 98 79 / 0 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 76 97 77 / 0 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 83 88 81 / 0 0 20 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 79 92 79 / 0 0 20 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...59-GB LONG TERM....64-Katz AVIATION...59-GB