Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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289 FXUS65 KBOU 150621 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1221 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A bit less thunderstorm activity today with lower flood/severe threats. Much less on Thursday. - Hotter and drier Friday and into the weekend. - Precipitation chances increase beginning Sunday, with some moderation in temperature. && .UPDATE... Issued at 734 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Going forecast on track with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms slowly coming to an end by midnight. Main threat with the remaining showers and storms will be gusty outflow winds, especially with the activity crossing the Continental Divide. Gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this. Airmass continue to dry tonight and Thursday with isolated high-based convection expected for Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 GOES-18 West continues to display dry air throughout northeastern Colorado. With limited instability and shear, scattered showers and storms shouldn`t pack a punch compared to the last few days this week. Generally, METARs shown 35-40 mph gusts as showers and storms push eastward. This should continue until early evening. With storms moving quickly, the flood threat is much lower through this evening. Tonight, temperatures are near normal across the CWA. A ridge pattern builds into the region starting Thursday. As moisture remains limited Thursday afternoon, high based isolated to scattered showers are possible mainly for the mountains and foothills. Weak MLCAPE values at 300 J/kg and SHIP values near 0.4 could lead to a few stronger storms producing small hail. DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg thus it possible storms could produce wind gusts up to 40 mph. There is some uncertainty in storms crossing the Divide into the I-25 corridor. With sufficient heating and low level moisture, a few gusty showers are possible. Expect similar temperatures once more. && .LONG TERM /Thursday night through Wednesday/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 There will be a weak shortwave trough within the broader ridging that moves across Colorado Thursday night into Friday morning. This will provide just enough forcing for a few showers and weak storms to form on the far eastern plains. PoPs were increased slightly to indicate in the forecast that measurable rain could occur. Later in the day on Friday, an upper level ridge will strengthen over the Four Corners area with warm, westerly flow over our forecast area. The strong subsident flow will keep conditions dry and there will be mostly sunny skies. These factors will lead to temperatures warming above normal with highs reaching the low to mid 90s across the urban corridor and plains. On Saturday, the ridge will move closer to our forecast area and there will continue to be strong subsidence. There will again be mostly sunny skies with only a stray shower or two. An additional degree or two Celsius of warming at 700 mb will allow temperatures to warm 3-5 F compared to Friday. Highs in the mid to upper 90s are expected across lower elevations. Some of the ensemble members have DIA reaching 100 F. Due to the recent moisture and 700 mb temperatures not being quite warm enough for triple digit heat, it seems unlikely DIA or Denver would actually reach 100 F. The forecast for Denver calls for a high of 97 F which would be 1 degree short of the daily record high of 98 F set in 2020. That record high is well within reach. On Sunday and into early next work week, the ridge aloft will drift eastward towards the panhandle of Oklahoma. At the surface, there will be southeasterly flow on the plains which will draw healthy moisture farther west. The moisture will likely reach the foothills and even though there is a strong cap aloft, the additional instability and upslope flow in the higher terrain will result in scattered storms developing in the afternoon and evening each day. With light flow aloft and ample moisture, these storms could pose a flash flooding risk over the recent burn areas. Highs will moderate a bit through the middle of the week but will still be slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/... Issued at 1215 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR through Thursday. Isolated high based showers are expected near Denver 21z-03z. There is a 20% chance of a wind shift or two with gusts to 30 knots. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Drier air will lead to limited thunderstorm coverage Thursday through Saturday, with a low threat of flash flooding for burn scars. There will be at least a limited threat of flash flooding on the burn areas Sunday through Wednesday as moisture returns to our forecast area. Scattered storms are expected over the higher terrain each day. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Meier SHORT TERM...AD LONG TERM...Danielson AVIATION...Gimmestad HYDROLOGY...AD/Danielson