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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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023 FXUS65 KBOU 152329 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 529 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and a couple storms tonight - Hotter and drier Friday and Saturday - Precipitation chances increase beginning Sunday, with some moderation in temperatures, though still warm. - There will be a limited or greater threat of flash flooding over the burn areas Sunday through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday/... Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Satellite shows a fair amount of cumulus growing over the mountains and higher terrain, with a notable pocket of slight cooling and subsequent delay of hitting the convective temperature behind the patch of clouds that moved across this morning into early afternoon. Those clouds have pretty much burned off, so we`re back to typical diurnal buildups. However, moisture levels are decreased from the last several days and instability is quite weak with only a couple hundred J/kg. Therefore, showers and any storms will be relatively weak, but a few pockets of gusty outflow winds possible given DCAPE of 1000-1400 J/kg. We have some weak upper level support in the form of QG and mid level frontogenesis to keep a few showers and storms going through midnight, and even into the late night/early Friday morning hours over the northeast corner. On Friday, after any morning convection leaves the northeast corner, we`ll be hotter, drier, and more stable. There will be a band of higher low level moisture/MLCAPE on the northeast plains just east of a pseudo-dryline/mixed environment, so just a 20% chance we could pop off a storm along that boundary and then eventually tap into the deeper moisture and instability to the east. The SPC Marginal Risk seems a bit much, but still something to watch for an isolated strong/severe storm threat. Temperatures will heat up further tomorrow, with highs pushing into the lower to mid 90s across the plains, except the far northeast plains. && .LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/... Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Saturday will be the warmest and driest day of the long term period. A 500 mb ridge with heights around 598 dm will be centered over norther New Mexico. Subsident flow from this ridge will limit cloud cover and add to compressional warming. Highs will increase to the mid to upper 90s across the plains. The forecast for Denver still calls for a high of 97 which is a degree short of the daily record high. Ensemble data supports a temperature around 97 and the thinking is that the GFS MOS forecast high of 99 for KDEN is too warm. There will be high lapse rates which may allow for a few light showers to form in the afternoon. More wind than rain would be expected from these showers. The upper level ridge will drift eastward on Sunday and southeast to east winds will develop at the surface across the plains. This upslope low level flow will be aided by a high pressure system that will be located over Nebraska. This will push moisture farther westward up against the foothills. Moderate instability will develop across much of our forecast area and storms will form over the higher terrain in the afternoon thanks to the orographic flow. As the storms drift eastward, they will encounter an environment that will be more capped. As a result, storms will struggle to persist across the plains although some areas will see gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. The primary threat will be the chance of flash flooding over the recent burn areas. The upper level ridge will barely move Monday through next Thursday. Persistent weather conditions will be over Colorado as a result. Each day will have highs that are a few degrees above normal with highs in the low to mid 90s across the plains. Healthy moisture will be in place and this will help to generate daily showers and thunderstorms. Storms will be slow moving and may produce brief heavy rainfall. The burn areas will see a daily threat of flash flooding and it is too early to tell which days might have an elevated threat compared to a limited threat. For the most part, storms will be short-lived on the plains but gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavy rain will be possible from any storm. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/... Issued at 528 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High based showers, and possible weak thunderstorms are expected to prevail through at least 06Z. Main issue with this will be gusty outflow winds producing wind shifts at the airports. Skies clear overnight with mostly clear skies expected for Friday. As far as winds go, southeast winds are expected to continue through much of the evening. There`s been a general consensus among the models that outflow from convection to the north of Denver brings a northerly wind shift late this evening or overnight. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue tonight, but intensity will be limited by lack of instability and less moisture content in the atmosphere. Thus, threat of even burn scar issues is very low tonight. A dry pattern will prevail Friday and Saturday, with nothing more than a possibility of isolated, weak showers in the high country leading to a negligible threat of flooding for the burn scars. The flash flood threat returns Sunday as we receive a considerable influx of monsoonal moisture. The primary concern will be a limited or higher threat of flash flooding on the recent burn areas. This is because storms will be slow moving and the chance for storms to develop over the foothills is rather high. The pattern doesn`t appear supportive of successive days of efficient rain producers, so the threat for flooding as lower elevations is low. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...Danielson AVIATION...Meier HYDROLOGY...Barjenbruch/Danielson