960
FXUS65 KBOU 051740
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1140 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few storms over the northeast plains
  through mid afternoon.

- Near to below normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions
  will persist Friday through early next week.

- There will be a very small chance of strong to severe storms
  over Washington, Phillips, and Sedgwick Counties Saturday
  afternoon.

- Best chance for showers and storms in the extended will be
  Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

What has been impressive this morning was an area of enhanced
storm activity in eastern Washington County, east of Anton, that
likely produced some small hail...at 830 AM...on July 5th.

Lingering moisture continues to push through the NE plains this
morning with light showers dropping a few hundredths of an inch of
rain. GOES-16/17 is showing better drying aloft so the current
forecast remains on track for less coverage this afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will remain quite comfortable for early July
standards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

QG lift with slight elevated instability has kept scattered
showers and a few storms going over the northeast corner of
Colorado overnight. Models differ on the timing of this ending,
but the back edge of the current cloud deck is currently in
southeast Wyoming, so it may be mostly this morning, with drying
in the afternoon. We`ll keep some PoPs in the afternoon, but show
a decrease late in the day. Further west there will be slight
moisture/instability and we`ll have isolated PoPs over the
foothills late in the day, but it really may wind up being just
like yesterday in the I-25 corridor and the mountains. There`s
further drying gradually spreading from west to east overnight
tonight, though there could still be some clouds and maybe a few
showers clipping the northeast corner overnight as a shortwave
that`s now over Alberta moves past.

Forecast temperatures look good, with today about the same as
yesterday and then warmer in most areas tonight as south winds
develop on the plains and provide a bit more mixing, along with a
little warming aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

On Saturday, a shortwave trough will move through Wyoming and
towards the WY/CO border by the evening. Over Colorado, there will
be west to northwest flow throughout the troposphere which will
lead to some downslope flow. This downslope flow will help to
increase temperatures and the 90s have a good chance of returning
to the Denver area. A dryline will set up in far eastern Colorado
during the afternoon. The most likely location is that it extends
from Holyoke to Burlington, CO. To the east of the dryline, most
unstable CAPE will be around 2,000 j/kg and there will be 40 knots
of deep layer shear. Therefore, a couple of strong to severe
storms may form but they will primarily be just east of our CWA.
Nonetheless, SPC has far northeast Colorado in a marginal risk and
that makes sense since the dryline could end up being further
west.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will dominate the weather on
Sunday across Colorado. A cold front associated with this trough
will move through early Sunday morning and there could be a few
light showers with this front. Northeast winds behind the front
will increase low level upslope flow and add moisture to the area.
These factors as well as the QG ascent from the trough will lead
to scattered coverage of showers and storms Sunday afternoon.
These storms do not appear they will be severe as conditions will
likely be too stable. Otherwise, temperatures will be quite cool
with highs not reaching above the upper 70s.

A ridge within the northwest flow aloft will move over Colorado on
Monday. High temperatures will warm slightly and the chance of
showers and storms will decrease.

An upper level ridge over the west coast of the US will begin moving
eastward on Tuesday and through the rest of next week. Colorado
will be under northerly flow aloft for a few days. High
temperatures will increase each day and there will be isolated
storms mainly across the higher terrain. Models have once again
continued their trend of holding off the very hot temperatures for
another 12 hours or so. But as I mentioned last night, the heat
wave is still inevitable with next weekend looking like record
high temperatures could occur.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Today - Tomorrow...VFR. Lighter winds continue today shifting
towards the south this evening. Expecting a similar pattern
tomorrow across the region. High confidence.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heavener
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Danielson
AVIATION...Heavener