580
FXUS65 KBOU 142048
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
248 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory continues through 8 pm this evening. Not quite as
  hot on Monday but sill important to take steps to limit outdoor
  activity, find ways to cool off, and stay hydrated as much as
  possible.

- Dry lightning threat and new fire starts possible early this
  evening.

- Strong and gusty microburst winds possible this afternoon and
  evening. An isolated severe storm possible over the plains this
  evening.

- Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Monday with a
  few severe storms possible over the plains. Increasing chance
  of showers and thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday.

- More typical summer weather for the latter half of this week
  with scattered afternoon showers and storms, and temperatures
  averaging closer to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Monday/...
Issued at 247 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A boundary exits over the plains and separates drier air to the
west with moister air to the east where MLCAPE up to 1000 j/kg
exist. Sct tstms may develop in the next few hours along this
boundary from Briggsdale to Wiggins to Simla and then move ESE
across the plains. Could see a brief landspout or two along this
boundary as initial convection develops. In addition, there is a
low threat of a an isold svr storm as well.

Meanwhile, further west into the higher terrain, higher based
showers and storms will continue with gusty winds possible and
limited rainfall.

On Mon, the upper level ridge will flatten some with an increase
in westerly flow aloft.  In addition, will continue to see an influx
of mid level moisture.  MLCAPE across the plains will be around 1000
j/kg by aftn. Overall, will see a good chance of showers and storms
over the higher terrain with sct activity across the plains. With
increasing mid level flow and some shear a few svr storms will be
possible over the nern plains.

As far as the heat,  highs will be a few degrees cooler with
readings in the mid to upper 90s across the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 247 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Monday evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms gradually
exit/decrease across the mountains and plains with some containing
gusty outflow winds. Tuesday, the region remains on the east
periphery of the upper ridge. An upper trough over the Great Lakes
gradually deepens to the northeast. Tuesday will feature the real
first relief from the heat thanks to the another reinforcing cold
front that pushes across the plains. Ensemble means show highs in
the upper 80s to near 90 for the I-25 corridor and plains. A plume
of above normal (100-140%) moisture remains over the region, but the
cold front will provide additional support to bring moisture into
the lower levels. Combined with marginal instability (MLCAPE <
1000j/kg), this will support an upward trend in shower/storm chances
and coverage from the mountains eastward onto the plains. Drier air
at the surface across areas of the lower elevations may continue the
threat for gusty outflow winds from any convective showers/storms.
Soundings still show a shallow inverted v profile with DCAPE values
900-1500j/kg.

Wednesday looks similar with above normal moisture remaining intact
across the region with temperatures cooling a few degrees from
Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is still showing highs likely to be below
normal. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop again in the
afternoon.

Thursday through the weekend, ensemble guidance shows a consensus on
the upper level ridge retrograding west across the Great Basin while
the aforementioned trough persists over the Great Lakes/Midwest
region. Most solutions seem to put northeast Colorado on the edge of
both features, within the northerly flow aloft on the east of the
ridge. Ensemble means show slight warming closer to normal
temperatures; however, there is potential for a few embedded waves
to bring a day or two of cooler temperatures than the ens means.
Each day will feature afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms
with the higher chances over the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Winds will trend to more northerly 19z.  Still expect sct high
based showers to move across by 21z with mainly virga and brief
gusty winds from 40 to 50 mph thru 01z. There could be some
additional high based showers between 01z and 03z but wind speeds
should be lower. Wind directions will be quite chaotic due
to outflow from the showers but will keep them north thru 01z
with a gradually shift to SSW by 03z. Winds may go more WSW after
08z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

There still be some threat of dry lightning early this evening
with a Red Flag Warning mainly for the higher terrain until 9 pm.

Elevated fire danger will continue on Monday, however the threat of
dry lightning with storms will be lower.  Winds outside of showers
and storms will remain relatively light.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ211>218-238.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ038>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...RPK