Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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587 FXUS64 KBMX 131118 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 618 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 251 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024 The big weather story for central Alabama in the foreseeable future will be the heat. An upper level ridge builds into the southeast states, which will help push high temperatures well into the 90s and close to triple digits over the weekend. Initially, dewpoints should be low enough today so that heat indices will stay below Heat Advisory criteria. However, dewpoints start creeping up on Sunday, and we will be borderline Advisory criteria. Will give things another model run or two to gain more confidence, before pulling the trigger on an Advisory for Sunday. The slow ramp up in dewpoints will also mean a similarly slow ramp up in convective coverage. Highest POPs over the weekend will be in the far south, which could see some seabreeze initiated storms in the late afternoons. /61/ && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024 Low amplitude upper-level flow will stretch across the CONUS at the beginning of the period featuring a ridge across the West and weak troughing across the East. However, low-level ridging will remain positioned across the Southeast where an ongoing period of above-average temperatures supports expanding drought across the Tennessee Valley. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s are forecast Monday and Tuesday. Making matters worse, mean low-level flow will favor a southwesterly direction allowing for increasing boundary layer moisture. PWs will rise toward 2.0" with dewpoints in the low 70s. Thus, daytime heat index values will likely meet/exceed advisory criteria. Our saving grace will be the increasing chance for afternoon convection owing to increasing moisture/instability. Furthermore, convective coverage could be enhanced by the presence of a subtle upper-level low (barotropic instability) progged near the ArkLaMiss Monday and Tuesday. PoPs were increased a bit, but still remain below the "likely" category until confidence increases that we`ll see meaningful coverage. Temperatures begin a slow (and merciful) decrease mid to late next week in association with a more prominent mid- to upper-level trough progged to advance across the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. This will feature embedded shortwaves that will swing closer to our region on Thursday as the pattern aloft becomes more amplified. Meanwhile, moisture values will increase a bit more Wednesday, generally ahead of an associated front that approaches the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. With the aid of synoptic forcing, convective rain chances are 60-70% for Wed/Thu, and hopefully this will provide beneficial rains to the forecast area. Rain chances remain elevated along the progressing front into Friday, with drier air moving into the area across the north. It doesn`t sound like much, but there could be enough mid-level flow (around 20-25 kts) for a few stronger storms on these days as well, should other mesoscale factors work out. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024 Still essentially a wind forecast across central Alabama TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Patches of mid- to high-level clouds (all above 12k feet) may occasionally drift across the area, and there will be a period of cumulus development from late morning to late afternoon. Seabreeze convection to our south is not expected to impact central Alabama terminals. VFR conditions to continue. Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN UFN due to missing ceilings. /61/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry conditions will remain in place through the weekend. Min RHs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 30 to 35 percent range, though winds should remain generally light to calm. Chances of isolated showers and storms return on Sunday, with a more humid air mass returning next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 97 71 98 72 / 0 0 10 10 Anniston 96 73 97 73 / 0 0 20 10 Birmingham 97 76 98 76 / 0 0 20 10 Tuscaloosa 98 74 98 74 / 10 0 20 10 Calera 97 74 98 75 / 0 0 20 10 Auburn 97 74 97 75 / 10 10 20 10 Montgomery 99 74 99 75 / 10 10 30 10 Troy 98 74 98 74 / 20 10 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM.../61/ LONG TERM....40 AVIATION.../61/