570
FXUS64 KBMX 080005
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
705 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 653 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain ongoing south of the
I-20 corridor early this evening. The coverage will decrease the
next few hours after the sun sets. MLCAPE values are around 3000
and there is a small chance that the stronger storms may produce
wind gusts to 45 mph and heavy rainfall. The quasi-stationary
front was north of the I-20 corridor with surface dew points well
into the 70s south of the boundary. Will hold the lows in the 70s
and therefore another mild and sticky overnight period. On Monday,
the best chance of convection will be south but overall pops will
range from 40 to 70 percent. With dew points remaining high and
highs jumping into the mid 90s in spots, we will experience
another day where it feels like 105 degrees or better across much
of the area. A Heat Advisory is in effect for these areas into
Monday evening.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024

Winds will be prevailing out of the southwest through tonight.
Plenty of moisture advection will take place with PW values near
max for this time of year. Instabilities will be close to 3000
J/kg and little shear is present. CAMs are trying to show
scattered convection across the state through the afternoon and
early evening, though so far coverage is much less than yesterday.
Would expect high rainfall rates and slow moving storms, though
severe weather is not expected at this time. High temperatures
will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices hovering in the
trouble digits across the state, and heat indices around 105 in
the southeastern counties. Will keep a Heat Advisory going for the
southeastern counties through the evening.

Winds will turn low and mid level winds from the south early
Monday morning through the rest of the short term. High PW values
will remain and instabilities will be fairly high overnight and
Monday afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will remain possible through the night, with more scattered
convection expected Monday afternoon. Activity should again be
slow moving with high rainfall rates possible. A few storms may
produce gusty winds but right now, severe weather is not expected.
Temperatures on Monday will be in the mid 90s with heat indices
hovering around the lower triple digits. With low temperatures
tonight only be in the mid 70s with a few areas reaching the low
70s, have opted to extend the Heat Advisory and include the
southwestern half of the area.

Fog is possible again overnight, especially in any areas that
receive rainfall this evening. Left in patchy wording for now due to
uncertainty in coverage.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024

Latest NHC forecast and 12Z model runs indicate no big changes to
the expected evolution and movement of "Beryl" and its eventual
remnants since this morning`s discussion. Long term portion of the
forecast remains largely unchanged from before as well, with a
small lull in daily convective rain chances the middle to end of
the upcoming work week, and a return of high temperatures well
into the 90s by next weekend.

/61/

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024

Beryl remains on track to impact areas to our west on Tuesday
after moving inland from the Texas Gulf Coast. This will coincide
with a moisture-rich environment spanning the entire Deep South,
though guidance has recently trended somewhat lower with PWs.
Nonetheless, we should still see a good scattering of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday given height falls associated
with Beryl to our west, and there will be mesoscale
considerations that could result in locally higher/lesser coverage
of convection. The latest NHC forecast (and associated guidance)
depicts a more transient evolution of Beryl across the Lower
Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday as its circulation merges
with a trough to the north. It now appears to be well on its way
toward the Ohio Valley by Wednesday as an open wave trough aloft
with post tropical cyclone characteristics. As such, impacts to
Central AL appear to be little to none at this time, but we`ll
monitor for any potential changes since we`re on the eastern side
of the circulation where it`s not uncommon to see at least
isolated flooding & tornado threats establish. Latest forecasts
from SPC is currently focused on areas to our northwest & north
where guidance is now placing the best supportive kinematic
parameters.

After Beryl moves off to our north Tuesday night into Wednesday, a
drier, more stable air mass is forecast to move into much of the
Tennessee Valley along with a slight reduction in temperatures -
it`s a cold front. Thus, we`ll return to a more routine summer
forecast that will continue through the end of the period.
Unfortunately PoPs will remain on the lower side until a more
substantial increase in moisture can occur, and this may take
several days according to latest medium range.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024

Have all of the terminals VFR through the period. Convection will
be near MGM this evening and have VCTS mentioned. Otherwise, these
scattered storms will decrease in coverage over the next few
hours. No big signal that would indicate widespread lower clouds
overnight. Additionally, no big cooling as lows remain in the 70s.
There may be some patchy fog but will be too limited to mention at
this time. On Monday, scattered to numerous showers/storms
develop again by afternoon. Winds will generally be light and
variable.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the period, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. No high
wind or low humidity impacts are expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  94  72  94 /  20  50  20  40
Anniston    74  94  75  93 /  30  50  20  40
Birmingham  75  95  75  93 /  20  50  20  40
Tuscaloosa  75  95  75  92 /  20  50  20  50
Calera      74  95  75  93 /  30  50  20  50
Auburn      75  91  75  92 /  50  70  20  40
Montgomery  76  94  75  93 /  40  60  20  50
Troy        74  94  73  93 /  50  60  20  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa-Dallas-
Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-
Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby-Sumter-
Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...75