Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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740 FXUS64 KBMX 020026 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 726 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 123 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2024 Tonight. Mid-level ridging will become centered over Northern Louisiana overnight with a northerly flow aloft over the area. Strong and expansive surface high pressure will move east, becoming centered across the Eastern Great Lakes Region. The surface boundary will become positioned just to the south of our forecast area, roughly along the U.S. Highway 84 corridor overnight. The position of the ridging to our northeast will promote a developing easterly flow across the area, resulting in easterly winds developing overnight and increased potential for lower clouds to develop and move west into the eastern counties later tonight before sunrise on Tuesday. Skies will range from mostly clear west to mostly cloudy conditions toward sunrise east. A few isolated showers and storms will be possible across the far east and southeast counties overnight. Winds will become easterly with speeds from 4-8 mph. Lows will range from the mid 60s far northwest to the mid 70s southeast and south-central. Tuesday. The mid-level ridging will become centered over the Mid-South Region on Tuesday while strong surface high pressure becomes elongated in form across much of the Northeast Metropolitan Corridor, extending southwest down the Appalachians. A weak front will be positioned roughly along Interstate 10 across Northern Florida while a weak easterly flow trough will be positioned meridionally across the western portion of the state. Expect skies to range from partly cloudy west to mostly cloudy east on Tuesday. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible generally near and southeast of the Interstate 59 corridor with best chances closer to the Interstate 85 corridor across the southeast counties. Winds will be from the southeast at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s in the higher elevations east and northeast to the upper 90s west and southwest. A heat advisory may be needed for portions of the southwest counties, generally from Tuscaloosa to Selma and west where temperatures will be high enough to combine with the humidity to create heat index values from 105-107 degrees based upon this forecast update. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 308 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2024 Forecast trends remain the same through this week, with hot and humid conditions through much of the week. Heat indices will be back in the 103 to 108F range for much of the area each afternoon. Better rain chances return for the weekend, as a weak front arrives from the north and stalls across the area. See previous discussion for details. 14 Previous long-term discussion: (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2024 Key messages: - Hot and humid conditions continue into much of the holiday weekend with heat indices at or above 105. - Widely scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected Wednesday and Independence Day with the potential for an uptick in shower and thunderstorms coverage Friday and Saturday. The strong subtropical ridge will remain over Central Alabama Wednesday and Thursday, before beginning to push eastward towards the Atlantic Friday and Saturday in response to a deepening trough over the north-central CONUS. Hot and humid conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday with isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection. Heat indices will be near or above 105 especially along and west of I-65. Friday into the weekend the southern fringe of the westerlies associated with the trough begin to dip into the area as a cold front approaches and then stalls over North Alabama. This will result in the potential for an increase in coverage of showers and storms as we begin to see a pattern change with a weakness in the ridge developing over the south-central CONUS. Pooling dew points south of the front will result in the potential for the highest heat indices occurring on Friday depending on how quickly convection initiates. The most likely scenario for the track of Hurricane Beryl per the large majority of ensemble members at this time is for it to be steered westward by the ridge to the southwestern Gulf and remain well removed from the northern Gulf Coast. Please see the latest NHC forecasts. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2024 An east to west cold front was moving very slowly southward near MGM early this evening. A north to south oriented surface trough was in western Georgia moving westward. A few showers and storms were near these boundaries and the only site with potential for precipitation is MGM. At this time, it appears the chances are too low to mention. The westward moving trough will increase low level moisture overnight. There may be some clouds developing late tonight and added a tempo for MVFR ceilings to all but TCL. Winds initially start out north around 10kts and become variable 5kts overnight. On Tuesday, winds shift to east southeast behind the trough around 10kts. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Moisture returns Tuesday, with minimum RH values above 40 percent for most of the area. A small area near the MS state line could drop into the 35 to 40 percent range. Easterly 20ft winds will be 5-9mph, with the weakest winds near the MS state line. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible across the southern half of Central Alabama. For Wednesday and Thursday, minimum RH values will be above 45 percent areawide, with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms. 20ft winds become light at less than 5mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 91 70 93 / 0 10 10 20 Anniston 71 89 73 92 / 10 20 10 20 Birmingham 71 93 75 94 / 0 10 10 20 Tuscaloosa 69 98 76 96 / 0 10 10 20 Calera 70 93 75 94 / 0 20 10 30 Auburn 73 88 73 89 / 20 40 20 40 Montgomery 75 95 74 94 / 0 40 20 40 Troy 74 93 73 93 / 20 40 20 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...75