292
FXUS64 KBMX 170011
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
711 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 639 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms started a bit early this afternoon and
have virtually run out the instability over the area. There may be
a patch or two of unstable air out there, and this may allow a
storm or two to develop the next hour or so. Otherwise, we are
left with stratiform rain from the convective remnants. This rain
will mostly diminish by 9 pm with only isolated activity the
remainder of the night. Mid and high clouds covered much of the
area early this evening. These clouds will also slowly erode
becoming clear to partly cloudy. Lows stay in the normal range
70s. On Wednesday, no changes as numerous showers and storms will
develop once again by afternoon. The Heat Advisory will be allowed
to expire at 9 pm. The combination of storm initiation and how
high temps can rise before hand remain an challenge. Will hold off
on issuing another for Wednesday at this time.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2024

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again this
afternoon. Humid conditions are in place with generally weak west-
southwest flow across the area. An upper-level low is situated to
our west over the Lower MS River Valley which is seemingly dampening
the ridge, although the ridge still has a foothold over the Deep
South in the lower levels. With ample moisture, rain chances will
remain elevated both today and tomorrow, especially during peak
heating hours. Some storms could produce gusty winds which could
knock down a few trees, much like yesterday, but these are routine
summertime thunderstorms. The Heat Advisory remains in effect
through this afternoon where some areas may reach heat indices up to
106F. Dewpoints look to be a couple degrees warmer tomorrow, but we`ll
probably only reach the lower 90s by early afternoon due to the
higher rain chances. So, it`s possible some areas could reach a
heat index of 105F late tomorrow morning or early afternoon, but
will hold off an issuing another Heat Advisory given the higher
PoPs which should greatly reduce temperatures once storm outflow
takes off, depending on where and how early storms initiate.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2024

Models continue to show a wetter pattern through the extended
forecast period, with trends highlighting above normal rain
chances and slightly below normal temperatures, as southwesterly
flow persists through the weekend.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2024

The Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South will remain in a
favorable zone for active weather mid to late this week, mainly
owing to the presence of an upper-level trough, an associated
surface front, and moist, unstable air. These factors will
support repeated cases of diurnal convection with best coverage
anticipated on Thursday as the surface front move across the
forecast area. The front should hang up to our south on Friday,
stretching southwest to northeast. A shortwave is progged to
advance across the frontal zone on Friday, embedded in an area of
strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Medium-range guidance
keeps the primary trough axis to our west into this weekend, and
this will provide opportunity for subsequent perturbations to pass
over the area with continued moist, unstable air. Thus, the
pattern will remain active with showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast for the next several days. The trough and active weather
will help keep temperatures moderated quite nicely, at least a
few degrees below normal most days.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2024

Terminal forecast look very similar to the past few days.
Thunderstorms are about done for the evening. Only a few pockets
of instability remain, but any additional storms will be too
limited to mention. Will stick with VCSH for a few more hours as
activity continues decreasing. Then we will be left with mid and
high VFR ceilings. Some thinning of the clouds is anticipated
overnight. Winds remain light outside any convection. On
Wednesday, another day of numerous storms. Expect the main
activity to develop in the afternoon and last into the early
evening. Started with PROB30 yet again and will narrow window with
additional issuances. Winds also stay westerly 5-10kts.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Increased rain chances continue through the week, as a front
stalls across the region. Scattered to numerous convective
coverage can be expected Wednesday afternoon, with even greater
coverage Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH values will be above 50
percent each afternoon through the end of the week, with
southwesterly 20 ft winds at 4-6mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  93  69  90 /  20  70  60  90
Anniston    74  92  72  88 /  30  70  60  90
Birmingham  76  94  73  90 /  20  70  60  90
Tuscaloosa  74  93  73  90 /  20  70  60  90
Calera      75  92  73  90 /  30  70  50  90
Auburn      74  92  73  89 /  40  70  50  90
Montgomery  75  95  74  93 /  40  70  40  90
Troy        73  95  73  92 /  40  70  40  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Macon-
Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...75