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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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152 FXUS64 KBMX 190851 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 351 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 651 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2024 Thunderstorm initiation was a bit behind the past several days, but the rain coverage ended up pretty high near and south of I-59 to north of I-85. Storms are still ongoing early this evening mainly over the southeastern half of the area. There was a cold front nearing the area and it was a bit tricky to actually identify it. Certainly there is effective front/trough just entering Marion County with much drier air north, but the overall frontogenetic forcing appears to be near and just south of I-20. A few boundaries south of that. These storms actually produced a few microbursts today as DCAPE was rather high 1000+. Made some pop adjustments based on radar for this evening. Still anticipating an upper level short wave just ahead of the main upper trough to move over after midnight. This will provide some additional lift as the front sags southward. Therefore, pops after 06z look good. High coverage remain on tap for Friday as the boundary becomes quasi- stationary and meander north and south. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 100 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2024 Generally low-amplitude troughing extends southwest from Quebec into the ArkLaTex region. At the surface, a cold front extends south along the Eastern Seaboard before continuing west across northern Alabama and towards Texas. A large surface ridge is building over the Midwest associated with a 596dm ridge over the Desert Southwest. This orientation continues to place Central Alabama within a zone of deep west-southwesterly flow with moist conditions in place across the Southeast. The combination of surface heating, convergence along the weak front, and lift from the troughing to our west will contribute to above average PoPs both today and tomorrow. Highest chances are still focused during the afternoon hours, but some activity may linger into the evening. Currently, the cu field is beginning to develop and some showers and thunderstorms are forming to our north and west, but convection really hasn`t initiated quite as early as it did yesterday. Still expecting coverage to increase over the next few hours, and the storms will likely be gusty again today. The front will stall across the area tomorrow, and widespread showers and storms are expected again by the afternoon. The higher PoPs will result in highs in the 80s to lower 90s, so heat will not be as much of a concern as it has been over the past week. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2024 Sunday through Thursday. The rainy pattern is expected to continue through much of the upcoming week with higher than normal rain chances each afternoon. Broad troughing stretches from the Great Lakes through the ArkLaTex with high pressure to our southeast. This will allow for effective deep-layer moisture flow with enough upper level forcing to allow for the development of thunderstorms each day across Central AL. The coverage of the diurnal convection will be higher than typical given the upper level forcing. I`ve gone with roughly 60-70% chance for thunderstorms each afternoon, decreasing to 20-40% overnight for pretty much every day in the extended forecast. I think there will be some days where coverage is a little less than this and some days where it may be more, but discerning those details this far in advance is difficult, so expect some changes to the forecast as each day gets into range of higher resolution model guidance. The good news is that with the increased coverage of rain/storms, temperatures each afternoon should remain in the 80s to low 90s. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 132 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2024 MVFR cigs are either occurring or expected to develop over the next few hours across C AL and remain for the majority of the forecast. Vsbys will be generally dependent on any heavy rain. Winds should be light outside of any stronger convection. We will continue in a wet pattern with off/on waves of convection thanks to a lingering stationary boundary in the area and upper shortwave activity across the Deep South around the base of a longwave E Conus upper trough. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A rainy pattern is expected to continue through the weekend and into the early part of next week. Generally light winds expected aside from thunderstorm wind/gusts. The humid airmass will keep MinRHs in the 60-80% range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 83 66 85 68 / 70 70 60 70 Anniston 83 69 84 70 / 40 50 70 70 Birmingham 83 69 85 71 / 50 70 60 70 Tuscaloosa 83 69 85 71 / 60 60 60 60 Calera 83 70 85 71 / 50 50 70 70 Auburn 86 71 85 71 / 60 30 70 60 Montgomery 88 71 87 71 / 50 40 70 60 Troy 89 69 87 70 / 70 40 70 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....25/Owen AVIATION...08