343
FXUS63 KBIS 152002
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
302 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms possible, with mainly rain showers
  east of Highway 3, through this evening. The threat for severe
  weather is low.

- Areas of wildfire smoke to return across the west today, then
  across the west and central tonight through Friday.

- Warmer weather, with limited chances (20 to 40%) for
  precipitation, is anticipated Friday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Wrapped up upper level low will continue to bring showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across eastern portions through
this evening. This will mainly be for areas along and east of
Highway 3. Meanwhile, abundant instability across central and
northern portions could lead to some pulse like thunderstorms
through this evening. WPC has analyzed a cold front in
northwestern ND currently, although this appears to be more of a
pseudo dry line moving through. This front could be the focus
for a few stronger storms through this evening. Shear is
lacking, with up to 20 knots currently found in the CWA. Lapse
rates are also lacking. Thus severe hail is not anticipated at
this time, although small hail is possible. The wind threat is
also minimal, although inverted v soundings could indicate some
elevated wind gusts are possible as the pulse thunderstorms
collapse. Of concern with the upper low, steep low level lapse
rates, some low level shear, and some low level CAPE there could
perhaps be some brief funnel clouds near any more robust
updrafts from todays convection. Non Super Cell Tornado
parameter is also elevated currently on SPC`s meso analysis
page. The pulse nature of these storms may not give enough
residence time for a funnel cloud or brief landspout to setup,
although it is possible. Behind this mentioned boundary is
starting to see some wildfire smoke filter into the state. This
could impact the northwest through the evening. Tonight,
thunderstorms should diminish shortly after sunset, while
showers may linger in the southeast. Smoke will continue to
filter into the west and north, perhaps reducing visibility
through the night. RH values will approach 100 percent, although
winds may be elevated enough to hinder fog development tonight.
Thus have left fog out for now. Lows tonight will be in the mid
50s to mid 60s. Upper low will continue to push eastward
Friday. This could perhaps bring some showers to the southeast,
with slight PoPs now in the forecast. Smoke will also continue
to filter into the state a high pressure builds into the area
through the day. Smoke may linger into Friday night as well.
Highs will be still remain slightly be low normal and generally
in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

A weak warm front may then lift across the state on Saturday
which could bring some showers and thunderstorms, mainly across
the west. Shear is elevated, although instability is limited.
There could be an isolated stronger storm as a result, and will
have to monitor for anything stronger. Temperatures should warm
with this front, into the 80s west and upper 70s east. Upper
level ridge builds more overhead on Sunday bringing mainly clear
skies and more warming temperatures. Perhaps some mid to upper
80s will be found as a result in the central and west, with
lower 80s east. Clusters then have this ridge set up in the
central US and flatten at some point. How far north this
flattens will determine thunderstorm chances. If this flattens
more over ND, then daily thunderstorm chances are possible, and
could possibly be strong. This ridge also bring higher
confidence in warmer temperatures in the 80s to perhaps lower
90s at least through mid week. This could also keep overnight
lows near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

MVFR to VFR conditions are possible at times through the
forecast period. Central and eastern sites, KMOT to KBIS and
eastward including KJMS, could see lingering MVFR ceilings
today. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible in these
areas today, although confidence was only high enough to bring
rain into the KJMS TAF later this afternoon through this
evening. Across the west will be mainly VFR conditions today,
although wildfire smoke could reduce visibility to low VFR to
possibly some MVFR readings. Showers and thunderstorms diminish
tonight, although some eastern sites, including KJMS, could see
lingering MVFR ceilings through Friday morning. The remainder of
the area should see VFR conditions tonight into Friday morning.
Wildfire smoke moving into the area could bring some reduced
visibility at times tonight into Friday, perhaps bringing some
MVFR visibilities.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin