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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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343 FXUS63 KBIS 152002 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 302 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms possible, with mainly rain showers east of Highway 3, through this evening. The threat for severe weather is low. - Areas of wildfire smoke to return across the west today, then across the west and central tonight through Friday. - Warmer weather, with limited chances (20 to 40%) for precipitation, is anticipated Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Wrapped up upper level low will continue to bring showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across eastern portions through this evening. This will mainly be for areas along and east of Highway 3. Meanwhile, abundant instability across central and northern portions could lead to some pulse like thunderstorms through this evening. WPC has analyzed a cold front in northwestern ND currently, although this appears to be more of a pseudo dry line moving through. This front could be the focus for a few stronger storms through this evening. Shear is lacking, with up to 20 knots currently found in the CWA. Lapse rates are also lacking. Thus severe hail is not anticipated at this time, although small hail is possible. The wind threat is also minimal, although inverted v soundings could indicate some elevated wind gusts are possible as the pulse thunderstorms collapse. Of concern with the upper low, steep low level lapse rates, some low level shear, and some low level CAPE there could perhaps be some brief funnel clouds near any more robust updrafts from todays convection. Non Super Cell Tornado parameter is also elevated currently on SPC`s meso analysis page. The pulse nature of these storms may not give enough residence time for a funnel cloud or brief landspout to setup, although it is possible. Behind this mentioned boundary is starting to see some wildfire smoke filter into the state. This could impact the northwest through the evening. Tonight, thunderstorms should diminish shortly after sunset, while showers may linger in the southeast. Smoke will continue to filter into the west and north, perhaps reducing visibility through the night. RH values will approach 100 percent, although winds may be elevated enough to hinder fog development tonight. Thus have left fog out for now. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Upper low will continue to push eastward Friday. This could perhaps bring some showers to the southeast, with slight PoPs now in the forecast. Smoke will also continue to filter into the state a high pressure builds into the area through the day. Smoke may linger into Friday night as well. Highs will be still remain slightly be low normal and generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A weak warm front may then lift across the state on Saturday which could bring some showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the west. Shear is elevated, although instability is limited. There could be an isolated stronger storm as a result, and will have to monitor for anything stronger. Temperatures should warm with this front, into the 80s west and upper 70s east. Upper level ridge builds more overhead on Sunday bringing mainly clear skies and more warming temperatures. Perhaps some mid to upper 80s will be found as a result in the central and west, with lower 80s east. Clusters then have this ridge set up in the central US and flatten at some point. How far north this flattens will determine thunderstorm chances. If this flattens more over ND, then daily thunderstorm chances are possible, and could possibly be strong. This ridge also bring higher confidence in warmer temperatures in the 80s to perhaps lower 90s at least through mid week. This could also keep overnight lows near normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 MVFR to VFR conditions are possible at times through the forecast period. Central and eastern sites, KMOT to KBIS and eastward including KJMS, could see lingering MVFR ceilings today. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible in these areas today, although confidence was only high enough to bring rain into the KJMS TAF later this afternoon through this evening. Across the west will be mainly VFR conditions today, although wildfire smoke could reduce visibility to low VFR to possibly some MVFR readings. Showers and thunderstorms diminish tonight, although some eastern sites, including KJMS, could see lingering MVFR ceilings through Friday morning. The remainder of the area should see VFR conditions tonight into Friday morning. Wildfire smoke moving into the area could bring some reduced visibility at times tonight into Friday, perhaps bringing some MVFR visibilities. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Anglin