313
FXUS63 KBIS 151440
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
940 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) of showers and
  perhaps a few thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday, mainly
  across the west and south central.

- Cooler weather returns through midweek with a modest warmup
  expected for the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The low stratus deck of clouds moving across the south central
is starting to break up as it moves. Another line of clouds in
Montana is trying to enter North Dakota, but they are
dissipating as that happens. There are very light radar echos in
Golden Valley County, the radar beam there is very high so we
are not seeing much of it. There could be some sprinkles falling
out of them. Slight PoPs were added here for the next 3 hours.


After these clouds move
through today will be mostly sunny, with no concern of
thunderstorms until tonight.

UPDATE
Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Minimal changes were needed for this update. A few light showers
will remain possible across the far south central and southeast
over the next our two near the South Dakota border. Another
isolated morning shower may be possible across the west where
we`ve seen some light radar echoes.

UPDATE
Issued at 515 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Storms have now completely moved out of our forecast area so we
will go ahead and cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the
counties of Dickey and LaMoure. Products have all been updated.

UPDATE
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Quick update to clear all counties from Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 536 except for Dickey and LaMoure. We will likely be able
to drop those two counties soon as well as convection continues
to move out of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Western and central North Dakota continues to sit under the
influence of broad upper level troughing. A surface low is currently
located over south central North Dakota with an effective warm front
extending east southeast down into the James River Valley. This
boundary can be seen on radar, clearly associated with the arc of
thunderstorms extending from southeast Sheridan county, over towards
western Foster county, and down to near Jamestown. SPC mesoanalysis
still suggests that 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and effective shear
upwards of 60 knots remains in place where convection is ongoing.
Thus, while the severe threat is slowing down, a few strong to
severe storms will remain possible until this arc of convection
moves out later this morning. Hail to the size of golf balls
and wind gusts to 60 mph will be the main threats. Most of the
CAMs have this activity finally moving out around 09z or 10z
which seems reasonable. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 536 remains in
effect for Foster, Stutsman, Emmons, Logan, McIntosh, LaMoure,
and Dickey counties.

Today will be cooler in the wake of the low and frontal system.
Highs will range from the lower 70s in the vicinity of the Turtle
Mountains, to the mid 80s southwest. Clouds will be decreasing
through the day but increasing again across the north tonight. Highs
will be very similar to today on Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper
ridge to our west amplifies and we remain on the eastern slope in
northwest flow aloft. The ridge starts to nudge towards us through
the end of the week, promoting warming temperatures starting on
Thursday with highs rising back into the lower 80s to lower 90s
through the weekend.

Regarding precipitation chances, a subtle wave will move down the
ridge and bring the next low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) of
precipitation to the west and south central tonight and into
Tuesday. We could see a few thunderstorms early with this activity
but it should transition to mainly showers fairly quickly given
meager instability. After this wave moves through we should
generally be dry for the rest of the work week. The one exception
could be on Friday when another wave may flatten the ridge briefly,
bringing with it some low chances (20 percent) of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 930 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A weak
disturbance will bring low to medium chances for showers (and
perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder) to the west and south
central tonight into Tuesday morning. Coverage, timing, and
exact location of this precipitation remain highly uncertain at
this time.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...ZH