257
FXUS63 KBIS 160341
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1041 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There`s a 30 to 60% chance of showers and maybe a few
  thunderstorms tonight through late Tuesday morning, with the higher
  chances across the west and south central.

- High temperatures warmup at the end of the week and into the
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Showers continue across the northwest as the wave progresses
further south. A trace of precipitation has been detected at a
few NDAWN, ASOS, and AWOS locations across the northwest. Cloud
bases remain elevated hindering precipitation, but weak
instability will increase the further south the wave pushes. No
updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on
track.


UPDATE
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Weather remains fairly quiet across the region. An upper level
wave continues to move across the northwestern half of the
state. There are some light returns on RADAR however cloud
bases are above 10kft evaporating precipitation. The wave will
trek further south, precipitation chances will increase as the
wave taps weak instability in the southwest. Thus leading to a
potential chance for thunderstorms. No other updates are needed
at this time as the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Diurnal cumulus have formed everywhere but southwest North
Dakota, where there is drier air aloft. These clouds should
stick around until sunset otherwise. The dry air aloft is
slowly moving east, so the cumulus will continue to erode in the
central and south central through the rest of the day. Aloft a
large upper level low is spinning in northern Manitoba and
moving southeast. With this, we are under the cyclonic northwest
flow through Wednesday. A surface low moving out of Montana and
into South Dakota will produce showers and possible
thunderstorms in the state. The highest chances will be across
western and south central parts of the state. No severe storms
are expected with very little CAPE anywhere. The shear is around
40kts so the showers and possible storms will be able to
sustain. The showers will move north to south in the mean 500mb
flow with the surface low providing more lift. Timing looks to
be around 2am CT through the late morning, ending in the south
central.

Wednesday and Thursday will be quiet under a broad ridge moving
in from the western CONUS. Temperatures will start to warm back
into the 80s and 90s, with the southwest the warmest. Thursday
night into Friday a small and quick moving short wave will move
through, producing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms
through the day Friday. The weekend looks like on and off slight
chances of thunderstorms with a few other kinks in the flow
creating lift. Temperatures will mostly be in the 80s through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

TAFs will remain VFR through the latest TAF period. A system
will roll through southwestern North Dakota tonight brining a
chance for showers and thunderstorms to KDIK and maybe KBIS.
Forecast models are more consistent with storms moving through
the KDIK area from 07Z to 12Z. KBIS could be on the northern
edge of the storms missing out on precipitation, but if band of
storms forms farther north then KBIS will be impacted. Based on
model trends KBIS was just kept VCSH. Winds will remain light
across the area switching to northernly tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Johnson
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Johnson