048
FXUS61 KBGM 141056
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
656 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through Friday with perhaps
a few isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms each day.
Showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely this
weekend. A warming trend begins today, before cooler
temperatures arrive this weekend along with the unsettled
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
650 AM Update:

Some isolated light rain showers developed east of Lake Ontario
and dropped southward into Oneida County. Adjusted PoPs for the
next couple of hours to account for this. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track.

400 AM Update:

Similar conditions are expected today compared to yesterday,
albeit a few degrees warmer. An upper level low spinning across
the Canadian Maritimes continues to allow subtle shortwaves
rotate around, which may spark a few isolated afternoon showers
or possibly a thunderstorm. That being said, the majority of the
area will remain dry again today with mostly sunny skies with
surface high pressure located just to our west. High
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
which is basically right at normal for this time of the year.
Efficient mixing during the afternoon will keep dewpoints on the
lower side (mainly in the upper 50s to near 60), allowing for
another relatively comfortable day humidity-wise.

Pretty much a persistence forecast for tonight with mostly clear
skies and light winds allowing for decent radiational cooling
conditions and the development of patchy valley fog. Low
temperatures are expected to mainly be in the 50s.

Thursday will feature similar conditions once again, with
mainly dry and mostly sunny conditions, but a chance for some
isolated to scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms. The
better chance for this will be located east of I-81 with the
upper level low located over the Canadian Maritimes drifts
eastward. Highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s with
a warmer and a bit more humid airmass in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 AM Update...

High pressure will be the main weather force Thursday night as
the center of a surface high will be over the CWA. Temperatures
will fall into the mid to upper 50s. A bit warmer than usual
when we have a surface high over the region but an upper level
ridge to the west will see some clouds spill over the top of it
and move into the area, keeping radiational cooling from
developing.

Friday morning, the ridge axis will slide east of the area,
bringing a shift to SWerly flow and a warmer, more humid airmass.
Highs will climb into the low to mid 80s across the region with
partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy by the late
afternoon/early evening.

A return of prolonged active weather will begin Friday evening
as a stacked low moves into the central Great Lakes region. This
low pushes a warm front through the region Friday night, bringing
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms starting Friday evening
through the weekend. PWATs behind the warm front with this
first wave of precipitation are in the 1.5-1.8 range so moderate
to heavy downpours will be possible, especially where convection
occurs. This may cause some flash flooding as we are already
pretty saturated from recent rains. Temps remain warm Friday
night thanks to the warm front, only falling into the mid 60s
across the region.

Saturday will continue to see unsettled weather as the low
pressure system slows its pace eastward and spins over the
Great Lakes. Guidance is showing a brief period in the late
morning/early afternoon where some clearing could get surface
instability going west of I-81, generating CAPE values around
1000-1500 j/kg. Bulk shear during this period looks to be
30-35kts so thunderstorms with the potential to produce severe
weather will be possible and how this develops will be
monitored. PWATs on Saturday lower as dry air works its way into
the region as the low occludes. Isolated heavy rain will be
possible but shouldn`t be as widespread as Friday night. Temps
Saturday will be in the upper 70s across the western Fingerlakes
and Mohawk Valley, with mid to low 70s along and east of I-81.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 AM Update...

The low pressure system will continue to be the
main feature impacting our weather through this period.

Sunday will continue to see scattered rain shower and
thunderstorm chances, however bulk shear is much lower than
Saturday, reducing the chance for severe weather. Flash
flooding will remain a threat given the recent rains and
saturated soils, but moisture available will be a bit lower as
PWATs fall to 1.25 to 1.5 in as drier air continues to work in
from the west.

The trough pattern remains over the area Monday and Tuesday,
continuing the unsettled weather pattern. High temperatures
will be slightly below normal through the period thanks to rain
and clouds, topping out in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Any lingering fog and associated restrictions at KELM and KRME
will dissipate by 13 or so, leading to a return to VFR
conditions. All other terminals likely remain VFR through at
least 06Z. Valley fog looks likely again late tonight/early
Thursday morning, which may bring some restrictions again to
KELM and KRME.

.Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR; isolated showers and
afternoon thunderstorms at times.

Saturday and Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
bring occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BJG