![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
048 FXUS61 KBGM 141056 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 656 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry conditions are expected through Friday with perhaps a few isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms each day. Showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely this weekend. A warming trend begins today, before cooler temperatures arrive this weekend along with the unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 650 AM Update: Some isolated light rain showers developed east of Lake Ontario and dropped southward into Oneida County. Adjusted PoPs for the next couple of hours to account for this. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. 400 AM Update: Similar conditions are expected today compared to yesterday, albeit a few degrees warmer. An upper level low spinning across the Canadian Maritimes continues to allow subtle shortwaves rotate around, which may spark a few isolated afternoon showers or possibly a thunderstorm. That being said, the majority of the area will remain dry again today with mostly sunny skies with surface high pressure located just to our west. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is basically right at normal for this time of the year. Efficient mixing during the afternoon will keep dewpoints on the lower side (mainly in the upper 50s to near 60), allowing for another relatively comfortable day humidity-wise. Pretty much a persistence forecast for tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds allowing for decent radiational cooling conditions and the development of patchy valley fog. Low temperatures are expected to mainly be in the 50s. Thursday will feature similar conditions once again, with mainly dry and mostly sunny conditions, but a chance for some isolated to scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms. The better chance for this will be located east of I-81 with the upper level low located over the Canadian Maritimes drifts eastward. Highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s with a warmer and a bit more humid airmass in place. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 230 AM Update... High pressure will be the main weather force Thursday night as the center of a surface high will be over the CWA. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 50s. A bit warmer than usual when we have a surface high over the region but an upper level ridge to the west will see some clouds spill over the top of it and move into the area, keeping radiational cooling from developing. Friday morning, the ridge axis will slide east of the area, bringing a shift to SWerly flow and a warmer, more humid airmass. Highs will climb into the low to mid 80s across the region with partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy by the late afternoon/early evening. A return of prolonged active weather will begin Friday evening as a stacked low moves into the central Great Lakes region. This low pushes a warm front through the region Friday night, bringing rain showers and isolated thunderstorms starting Friday evening through the weekend. PWATs behind the warm front with this first wave of precipitation are in the 1.5-1.8 range so moderate to heavy downpours will be possible, especially where convection occurs. This may cause some flash flooding as we are already pretty saturated from recent rains. Temps remain warm Friday night thanks to the warm front, only falling into the mid 60s across the region. Saturday will continue to see unsettled weather as the low pressure system slows its pace eastward and spins over the Great Lakes. Guidance is showing a brief period in the late morning/early afternoon where some clearing could get surface instability going west of I-81, generating CAPE values around 1000-1500 j/kg. Bulk shear during this period looks to be 30-35kts so thunderstorms with the potential to produce severe weather will be possible and how this develops will be monitored. PWATs on Saturday lower as dry air works its way into the region as the low occludes. Isolated heavy rain will be possible but shouldn`t be as widespread as Friday night. Temps Saturday will be in the upper 70s across the western Fingerlakes and Mohawk Valley, with mid to low 70s along and east of I-81. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 315 AM Update... The low pressure system will continue to be the main feature impacting our weather through this period. Sunday will continue to see scattered rain shower and thunderstorm chances, however bulk shear is much lower than Saturday, reducing the chance for severe weather. Flash flooding will remain a threat given the recent rains and saturated soils, but moisture available will be a bit lower as PWATs fall to 1.25 to 1.5 in as drier air continues to work in from the west. The trough pattern remains over the area Monday and Tuesday, continuing the unsettled weather pattern. High temperatures will be slightly below normal through the period thanks to rain and clouds, topping out in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Any lingering fog and associated restrictions at KELM and KRME will dissipate by 13 or so, leading to a return to VFR conditions. All other terminals likely remain VFR through at least 06Z. Valley fog looks likely again late tonight/early Thursday morning, which may bring some restrictions again to KELM and KRME. .Outlook... Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR; isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms at times. Saturday and Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...BJG