638
FXUS61 KBGM 121052
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
652 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary located along the coast may bring
some showers to parts of the area this afternoon through
Saturday, mainly for the Poconos and Catskills. Elsewhere,
conditions will be mainly dry through the weekend. Temperatures
warm back up to the upper 80s to lower 90s heading into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
650 AM Update:

A stalled frontal boundary continues to be located along the
coast today, but it will retrograde a bit westward by this
afternoon. Moisture riding along this frontal boundary will
surge northward and bring an increasing chance for showers and
possibly some thunderstorms beginning this afternoon. How far
west these showers make it remain a bit uncertain as high
pressure located over Central and Western NY will try to keep
mainly dry conditions in place for a large chunk of the area.

However, for areas east of I-81/south of I-88, especially across
the Poconos-Catskills, confidence is increasing in seeing
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms by the mid-late
afternoon and persisting through tonight. With PWATs around or
just under two inches, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
At this time, confidence in seeing any flooding is too low to
hoist any Flood Watches, but a shorter-fused Flood Watch could
be issued at a later time if confidence increases/if heavier rain
moves farther west than currently expected.

For areas west of these showers (in other words, most of the
area), today will actually be mainly dry with partly to mostly
sunny skies and highs in the lower to mid 80s. With more cloud
cover and some showers, the Poconos-Catskills will mainly have
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Tonight will be mainly dry
for areas west of I-81, but as mentioned above, showers will
continue east of I-81, especially across the Poconos-Catskills.
Lows are expected to be in the 60s.

More of the same is expected on Saturday, especially in the
morning, with some lingering showers mainly for areas east of
I-81, while areas west of I-81 remain mostly dry. Conditions
begin to dry out area-wide during the afternoon as the frontal
boundary moves eastward again and high pressure takes control.
The warming trend will continue with forecast highs on Saturday
in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
319 AM update...
Main concerns in the short term are focused on the hot and dry
conditions Sat night into Sun...hot and more humid conditions
Monday with increasing chances for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms.

Weak upper level ridge in place across the Northeast US Sat
night and Sun morning will keep weather conditions quiet with
generally clear skies which could lead to areas of fog across
the region. Overnight lows in the 60s Sun morning will quickly
warm into the 80s to around 90 in some spots Sun afternoon.
Surface dew points in the lower to mid 60s will keep humidity on
the low side, and the combination of weak large scale
suppression under the ridge should allow for mostly sunny skies
and very low or near zero chances for rain through most of the
day. The ridge axis will be moving out of the area later in the
day, which could allow for some very isolated/weak convection to
initiate Sun evening, but chances are less than 20 pct.

A mid level trough will gradually impinge upon the region from
the Great Lakes early in the day Monday. This feature will act
to increase southerly flow ahead of the system and usher in a
more humid and unstable air mass (ML CAPE values 1000-2000
J/kg). Daytime temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s, in
addition to dew points in the mid 60s to lower 70s, and the
presence of an approaching short wave should prove favorable for
scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. The
amount of deep layer shear is rather low (10-20kt of 0-6km
shear), so the threat of widespread severe weather is on the low
side. A few isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled
out Monday. We will also need to monitor the potential for Heat
Advisories as well. Some of the heat indices currently being
forecast for Monday are right on the edge of advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
319 AM update...

A very weak, cyclonic flow will set up through the middle of
the week with the overall air mass starting off hot and humid
Mon night and Tuesday, but gradually cooling off and drying out
Wed and Thu. Tuesday could end up being the most active day of
the week with the introduction of modest deep layer shear
(around 30-40 kt of 0-6km shear) later in the day, which would
overlap steep lapse rates and around 1500 J/kg of ML CAPE.
Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower and possibly mid
90s...and dew points in the lower 70s will make for very
unstable conditions and fairly widespread thunderstorms activity
later in the day. A few to several storms could become severe
before sunset Tue.

The upper short wave will continue to progress to the east/se
on Wednesday along with the axis of moisture and instability. If
the wave remains on track, convection is expected to develop
along and east of a line from State College, PA to Binghamton to
Albany and into northern New England. Areas to the east and se
will remain hot and humid with another round of strong to
possibly severe storms Wed afternoon. Conditions should improve
Wed evening as the drier and more stable air moves in from the
nw. The probability for more precipitation will be less than 20
percent into Thu with highs in the 70s to around 80 and dew
points in the upper 50s to near 60.

As for heat impacts, we will need to watch for Heat Advisory
level conditions on Tuesday with heat indices in the mid to
upper 90s in the southern tier NY valleys, and upper 90s to
around 100 in the Wyoming Valley in PA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Plenty of low level moisture will bring patchy fog and/or low
ceilings through the mid-morning hours, before conditions return
back to VFR by the mid-late morning. MVFR ceilings along with
occasional rain showers will be possible for KAVP tonight into
Saturday morning. MVFR to potentially Fuel Alternate ceilings
may get as far northwest as KBGM late tonight/early Saturday
morning, but otherwise the majority of the terminals should
remain VFR at least through 12Z Saturday. There is also a small
chance for patchy fog at KELM again tonight, but confidence is a
bit lower due to uncertainty in cloud cover.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR, although a some scattered showers or a
thunderstorm may bring occasional/brief restrictions.

Saturday night...Patchy valley fog may bring occasional
restrictions, especially at KELM. Otherwise mainly VFR.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday through Tuesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions; otherwise mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJG