891
FXUS61 KBGM 201859
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
259 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible into
tonight, mainly across Northeastern PA and Catskills. A weak
front will bring isolated showers and storms to Central NY
Sunday. More widespread showers return by midweek. Temperatures
trend slightly warmer through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
1245 PM Update..

Slight adjustments made to PoPs again with this update, blending
in some of the latest CONShort which seemed to be the closest
depiction to the shower activity that`s currently present across
NE PA and moving into the Catskills. Minor tweaks made to sky
cover as well from the northern Finger Lakes to the Mohawk
Valley to reduce cloud cover as it is expected to stay largely
clear across this corridor through the afternoon.

945 AM Update...

Adjusted PoPs a bit for the next few hours with spotty showers
developing a bit earlier over portions of NE PA, mostly in
Bradford and Susquehanna Counties. The rest of the forecast
looks to be on track at this time, but will be keeping a close
eye on the pop up convection this afternoon and how far north it
potentially can get across the Southern Tier and Catskills.

615 AM Update...

Fog has developed in the valleys and visibilities have been
reduced. As usual, fog should clear out over the next couple of
hours. Overall, the forecast is doing well though some minor
adjustments were made to the hourly temps based on the latest
observations. It does look like conditions will be favorable for
fog in the river valleys again tonight and not just limited to
areas that will see showers today. Because of this, patchy fog
was added in the river valleys.

305 AM Update...

Scattered high clouds continue to spread northward. Within the
breaks, fog is beginning to develop in the valleys of the Catskills
as seen on satellite. Similarly to yesterday morning, fog is
expected to spread in the valleys before lifting later this morning.
Today will start out dry, but a series of shortwaves just south of
the region will bring showers to the southern half of our CWA.
Isolated showers will be possible across NEPA and Catskills this
morning, but chances increase by the afternoon. Showers may drift
north into the Southern Tier as well. Models are showing about 500
J/kg of MLCAPE and 25 to 30 kts of shear. This will be enough to
support isolated to scattered thunderstorms, though severe weather
is not expected. Heading into the overnight hours, the environment
becomes more stable and thunderstorms will transition to just rain
showers.

These showers should be fairly light, though a brief downpour will
certainly be possible under thunderstorms. Forecasted QPF has
localized amounts up to a half inch. The latest NAM seems to be an
outlier as it has over an 1.5 inches of rainfall for some locations
across the Twin Tiers due to training of showers/storms. Other model
guidance is far from that extreme. Given dry conditions the last
couple of days hydro issues are not expected.

Showers will work their way out of the region early Sunday morning.
In areas that receive showers today/tonight, patchy fog may develop
thanks to the added moisture and light winds. Sunday will start out
dry but a weak front drops south from Canada into CNY, bringing
isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms with it.

Temperatures today will max out in the upper 70s to mid 80s and then
fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s tonight. Temperatures will trend
slightly warmer Sunday as most will observe 80s though a few
locations may just hang onto the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update:

Overall, a rather unsettled period of weather is expected in the
short term period, especially on Tuesday. Increasingly moist,
southerly flow associated with a deepening trough over the
Midwest U.S and Ohio Valley will allow for an increasing chance
for showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon with
peak heating. PWATs will also be on the rise, which means that
locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Much of the
activity on Monday will likely be more on the scattered side,
but it will become more widespread by Tuesday afternoon with
enhancement from an embedded shortwave moving through.
Otherwise, it will be partly sunny with highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s each day, along with increasingly humid conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
255 PM Update:

Unsettled weather likely continues through at least the first
half of the long term period before quieter weather may arrive
by the Friday/Saturday timeframe. A rather deep upper level trough
for this time of the year will slowly work its way eastward
from the Ohio Valley through our region. This, combined with
multiple shortwaves passing through and a moist airmass will set
the stage for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms,
especially Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with peak heating.
By Friday, the upper level low will move east of the area, which
will likely bring drier conditions, although still some spotty
showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Friday or Saturday
afternoons. Aside from the unsettled weather, it will generally
be partly sunny with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s each day,
with possibly slightly warmer conditions ahead for Saturday.
With dew points somewhat elevated, it will also be humid
throughout this period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected much of the time through the TAF
period. Scattered showers and even a thunderstorm or two are
expected this afternoon through the first part of tonight across
NE PA and the Catskills. While a stray shower cannot be ruled
out reaching as far north as BGM, AVP will have the best chance
of seeing precipitation, but given the scattered, pop up nature
of the showers, continued with VCSH in the TAF. Showers can be
locally heavy, so a TEMPO group was added from 20-23Z to try to
zero in on the best chance for possible restrictions from
showers. A thunderstorm for the terminal cannot be ruled out as
well, but confidence is too low to add to the TAF.

Similar to this morning, fog will develop after 06z in the
valleys. Confidence is highest at ELM, where visibilities may
fall into the IFR category. If the Wyoming Valley does see some
precipitation and there are some breaks in the cloud cover, then
there is the chance for some fog to form at AVP as well.

A front dropping into central NY from the north could lead to
isolated showers near the end of the TAF period for RME, SYR
and ITH.


Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Monday...Mainly VFR; fog possible
Monday morning.

Tuesday through Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions. Best chance of rain in the late
afternoon, evening and early overnight hours.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/DK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BTL/DK