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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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671 FXUS61 KBGM 182330 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 730 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and tranquil conditions are expected the rest of the work week. Temperatures trend warmer this weekend as quiet conditions also continue, though a stray passing shower or two cannot be ruled out. More widespread showers return early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 635 PM Update... Not much to change through tonight as high pressure builds in and skies turn out mostly clear, setting up good radiational cooling. With the flow out of the northwest off the lakes tomorrow, did add some more clouds across CNY as there tends to be more fair weather CU that develops as the day goes on than what guidance suggests; otherwise it will be a nice day. 155 PM Update... A welcomed quiet weather day after an extremely active week of destructive weather. High pressure continuing to build into the region from the west will continue to bring NW flow and cooler and drier air into the region. Fair weather cumulus clouds will persist this afternoon, dissipating by the evening hours. A period of clearing tonight will allow for radiational cooling to drop temperatures into the low to mid 50s, with patchy valley fog developing across our normal foggy areas. With dry air in place and mostly clear skies in the morning, this fog should dissipate around 8am. Friday will be very similar to today with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and mostly clear skies giving way to scattered afternoon cumulus clouds. The center of the surface high will move over the region by the evening hours, bringing calm winds and mostly clear skies. A mid-level ridge building to the south of us will bring SW flow and push clouds into the area during the overnight hours, limiting radiational cooling and thus fog formation. Valley fog may develop early in the overnight hours with the clear skies present but will have a tougher time forming later in the night as clouds move overhead and reflect the longwave radiation back to the surface. Lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 220 PM Update... Quiet start is expected for Saturday with moisture advection attempting to move in during the afternoon. With high pressure lingering over our region dry appears to win over. If showers materialize mostly expecting a slight chance over northeast PA and the western Catskills, the rest of the forecast area stays dry. Otherwise with light westerly winds and partly sunny skies temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. Somewhat clear skies work their way back into the region overnight with forecasted lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday with dry conditions staying in place through the morning. A weak boundary starts to push surface high just south of our region. As a result showers may work their way into the northern portion of our region just along the boundary. Otherwise mostly sunny skies are expected with warm temperatures ranging in the low to mid 80s during the afternoon. Temperatures overnight return to the upper 50s to low 60s with clear skies and light winds. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 220 PM Update... A more active pattern returns this week. Dry conditions hold out for the first part of Monday before a weak moisture starved cold front attempts to move over our region from the north. Not expecting much precipitation with this feature, but southwest flow may advect moisture into the region kicking off some afternoon showers for northeast PA. As this front attempts to pass over our region another stationary boundary over Maryland slows it down. Therefore our region gets placed inbetween both features by Tuesday and Wednesday with strong southerly flow aloft. Moisture gets advected into our region along this pattern with some organized convection possible. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Thursday as this pattern is slow moving. Temperatures during this period will range warmer on Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Temperatures cool slightly Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s with mild overnight lows again in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure building into the area will bring mostly VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Fog chances return tonight for the valleys. Winds should go calm with a period of clearing after 5z that should allow radiational cooling and the development of fog. ELM and RME continue to have the most favorable chances for restrictions, with ITH and BGM slightly higher than 6 hours ago. So, will keep those four terminals with TEMPO IFR or MVFR vsby fog. Once the fog lifts and mixes out after 12Z Friday, conditions will return to VFR with gusty 10-15 kt northwest winds. Outlook... Thursday through Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday...Rain chances return with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC NEAR TERM...DK/JTC SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...BJT/JTC