022
FXUS61 KBGM 190632
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
232 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and tranquil conditions are expected the rest of the
week. Temperatures trend warmer this weekend as quiet conditions
also continue, though a stray passing shower or two cannot be
ruled out. More widespread showers return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM Update...

Very few changes were needed with this update as the forecast
remains on track. One change to note was with fair weather
cumulus expected tomorrow, sky cover was increased over a wider
area of CNY to have partly cloudy skies for the afternoon hours.

930 PM Update...

Just some minor adjustments made at this time with the forecast
remaining on track this evening.

635 PM Update...

Not much to change through tonight as high pressure builds in
and skies turn out mostly clear, setting up good radiational
cooling. With the flow out of the northwest off the lakes
tomorrow, did add some more clouds across CNY as there tends to
be more fair weather CU that develops as the day goes on than
what guidance suggests; otherwise it will be a nice day.

155 PM Update...

A welcomed quiet weather day after an extremely active week of
destructive weather. High pressure continuing to build into the
region from the west will continue to bring NW flow and cooler
and drier air into the region. Fair weather cumulus clouds will
persist this afternoon, dissipating by the evening hours. A
period of clearing tonight will allow for radiational cooling to
drop temperatures into the low to mid 50s, with patchy valley
fog developing across our normal foggy areas. With dry air in
place and mostly clear skies in the morning, this fog should
dissipate around 8am.

Friday will be very similar to today with highs in the mid 70s
to low 80s and mostly clear skies giving way to scattered
afternoon cumulus clouds. The center of the surface high will
move over the region by the evening hours, bringing calm winds
and mostly clear skies. A mid-level ridge building to the south
of us will bring SW flow and push clouds into the area during
the overnight hours, limiting radiational cooling and thus fog
formation. Valley fog may develop early in the overnight hours
with the clear skies present but will have a tougher time
forming later in the night as clouds move overhead and reflect
the longwave radiation back to the surface. Lows are expected
to be in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

230 AM Update

Quiet and seasonable weather expected Saturday night into Sunday.
However, a weak front is progged to drop down from the north into
Central NY during the day on Sunday. Right now, most of the guidance
has this feature with very limited moisture or instability. With
that said, after mainly clear skies Saturday night there should be a
few more clouds around for CNY on Sunday; can`t rule out an isolated
shower or t`storm too. Lows are in the mid-50s to low 60s with highs
in the 80s Sunday afternoon.

This weak front washes out over the area Sunday night, with another
mainly clear and seasonable night expected. Patchy valley fog will
be a good possibility. Lows are in the mid-50s to low 60s again.

Monday into Monday night features a weak steering flow environment,
with moisture and instability gradually increase as a shortwave
approaches from the Mid-Atlantic. This feature may be enough to
initiate a few showers and/or T`storms in the afternoon...mainly
across NE PA. Otherwise, Monday will be partly sunny and a bit warmer
with highs in the 80s to near 90 across the Wyoming Valley region.
Monday night is partly cloudy, with still a chance for a shower or
t`storm around. Overnight lows gradually increase, with low to mid-
60s in the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

230 AM Update

This period will feature a more active, wetter and more humid
weather pattern. A deep southwesterly flow of moisture and
instability will set up over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Tuesday
through Thursday as an upper level trough slowly drifts east from
the Central Great Lakes. PWATs increase between 1.6 to 2.0 inches
during this period, and MLCAPE looks to be between 600-1200 J/kg each
afternoon. Deep layer shear is progged to be between 25-35 kts each
day as well as the flow increases between the deepening upper level
low/trough and the offshore Bermuda high. Current indications are
that the upper level trough/low will remain slightly positively
tilted as it trudges east-southeast through the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. The 00z GFS is further north and faster with this
trough, compared to the ECMWF. Some of the thunderstorms could
become more organized, with heavy downpours possible especially
heading into mid-week as WPC has a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall on day 5 (8 AM Tuesday - 8 AM Wednesday). This will be
something to monitor.

Overall, for sensible weather...each day Tuesday through Thursday
will feature partly sunny and humid conditions with afternoon & evening
showers & t`storms likely. Highs range from the upper 70s to
mid-80s, with muggy overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. By
the end of the period the timing and position of the upper level
trough is more uncertain on Friday. At least some of the
ensemble guidance suggest it will pull east, with a drier air
mass arriving. Stuck close to the NBM, which still lingers at
least a chance for a few showers into Friday...with steady high
temperatures between 80- 85 in most locations.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With light winds and clear skies, conditions are favorable for
fog to develop. however, it has been much slower to develop than
last night. Because of this, there remains uncertainty with
timing and restrictions. Given that BGM did not see fog 18 to 24
hours ago, that tempo was removed. With guidance still
targeting ELM, ITH, and RME, those tempos remain with
restrictions possible.

By 12z, any fog that does develop will clear up and VFR
conditions are expected through the rest of the period. Winds
will be light throughout this TAF period as well.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR; Low chance for showers at
AVP and BGM Saturday afternoon.

Tuesday...Rain chances return with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BTL