418
FXUS61 KBGM 192349
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
749 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend in most
areas. There is a chance for a thunderstorm or two in
Northeastern PA on Saturday. Temperatures trend warmer through
early next week. More widespread showers return by the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update...

Outside of some slight tweaks to sky cover early this evening
and blending in the latest obs, little change has been made to
the forecast at this time as it remains on track.

Previous discussion below.

200 PM Update

High pressure will continue to build into the region this
weekend. Fair weather cumulus clouds are expected to dissipate
by early evening with mainly clear skies aside from some wispy
cirrus tonight. Patchy fog is still possible along the river
valleys but should be slightly less coverage than this morning
due to continue drying. Moisture and instability returns on
Saturday across NEPA where a weak upper disturbance encounters
this environment in the afternoon. This may trigger spotty
showers or a thunderstorm across NEPA and as far north as the
Southern Tier and Catskills.

High pressure regains control during the evening with clear to
partly cloudy skies on Saturday night. Lows in the 50s to lower
60s each night with daytime temperatures reaching the upper 70s
to low 80s tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...

Sunday will be mostly quiet and seasonable for most. A weak cold
front looks to dip into the region from the north starting in
the late morning hours. Moisture available for this front to
produce precipitation is very limited, lending to isolated
shower development with a possible rumble of thunder. Temps
Sunday will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s.

The weak front dissipates over the region Sunday night. The
center of a surface High will move overhead, bringing calm winds
to the valleys which should allow fog to develop. Overnight lows
will fall into the mid 50s to low 60s.

Monday will see warmer temperatures as winds shift to more SSW
and advect in a warmer airmass. Temps are expected to climb
into the mid to upper 80s. A weak shortwave will move into the
area as the ridge to the south weakens and slides eastward.
This, combined with increased moisture from SSW flow will allow
for a chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to
develop during the afternoon and evening hours. The best chance
(30-40%) for precipitation will be over NEPA and into the
eastern portion of our CWA.

Rain chances continue through Monday night as another shortwave
moves across the region and moisture continues to advect into
the region. Lows fall into the mid 60s with dewpoints
increasing into the mid 60s as the night progresses.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
315 PM Update...

The weather pattern becomes much more active during this period
as a positively tilted upper level trough over eastern Canada
digs into the Great Lakes and central US on Tuesday. A closed
upper low will move into the Great Lakes from the north on
Wednesday, helping to get the overall troughing pattern to move
eastward by Thursday.

Instability and shear during this period look somewhat mellow,
with CAPE in the 500-1000 j/kg range and bulk shear around
25-30mph. Deterministic guidance from the GFS and EURO handle
the progression of the system differently. The GFS has a much
more amplified positively tilted trough on Tuesday, with allows
for a surface low to develop over western NY and move to the
ENE on Wednesday morning into the afternoon. The EURO, with
it`s less amplified trough keeps an open wave over the region
and continues to pump warm and moist air into the region as its
progression continues to be slower than the GFS. Ensemble
guidance does not show as amplified of a trough in the GFS run,
keeping the surface low from developing. The open wave does
remain, allowing for rain and thunderstorms to develop. The EURO
ensemble is close to the deterministic. Because of this, a lean
toward the EURO was taken with NBM guidance as the base for the
forecast.

So overall, Tues thru Thursday will see warm and humid temps,
with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Thunderstorm chances will be the greatest during the afternoon
and evening hours, with a chance for scattered rain showers
during the morning hours as weak shortwaves ripple through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR next 24 hours. High pressure will remain in control through
Saturday. Scattered cumulus continues to dissipate this evening
and patchy fog is expected around valley locations. Confidence
in fog is still on the low side, so will continue with a TEMPO
group between 09-12Z at ELM, but if fog does form there is
concern for IFR vsbys. So, have lowered vsby forecast at ELM in
TEMPO down to IFR. Fog will lift and mix out by 13Z and VFR
conditions will dominate everywhere tomorrow. There is an
inverted surface trough arriving from the south on Saturday, and
this feature is expected to mainly increase cloud cover over ne
PA and parts of south-central NY. Ceilings likely (75 pct
chance) remain VFR, and rain chances are only around 20-30 pct.

Winds will continue to be light and variable with some more
sustained flow around 4-7 kts from the west Sat afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday...Mainly VFR

Tuesday and Wednesday...Rain chances with associated
restrictions. Best chance of rain in the late afternoon, evening
and early overnight hours.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/JAB
NEAR TERM...DK/JAB
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BJT/JAB