380
FXUS61 KBGM 080641
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
241 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Not as warm, but still humid across Central NY today while
Northeast PA remains warm and steamy with the best chance of
afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms. Turning a little
less humid tonight as high pressure builds in. Wednesday will
feature just a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm before
becoming more active again for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front slowly moving across central NY will continue to
gradually push to the south and east this morning before
stalling out this afternoon just south and east of NE PA. As the
boundary moves through early this morning, there can be an
isolated shower over CNY, but all-in-all it will be a largely
dry frontal passage. Behind the front, temperatures won`t be
nearly as high today with highs across much of CNY in the upper
70s to lower 80s, but dew points are expected to remain in the
mid 60s to nearly 70 degrees in some places, so it will still
feel on the humid side.

Across NE PA and the southern Catskills, it will still be warm
and steamy this afternoon with dew points in the upper 60s and
lower 70s and high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to near
90 degrees. The heat and humidity will help to destabilize the
area this afternoon and with the stalled front not far away,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to pop up
through the early evening. There is some uncertainty in terms of
how widespread the coverage of the convection is this afternoon
and evening among the high-res models, with the HRRR and RRFS
being the most active and even brings a shower/storm into the
Southern Tier, there is the potential for any thunderstorm to
produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds. PWATs in this area this
afternoon range from 1.75 to locally over 2.00 inches with uni-
directional wind vectors which suggest the potential for some
training. Interestingly, despite the very moist environment,
model soundings are not quite as saturated as one would expect
through the whole column. In terms of instability, SBCAPE is
projected to range from 1500-2000 J/kg with about 25-30 knots of
0-6km bulk shear. Low-level lapse rates look pretty decent, but
mid-level lapse rates are marginal, between 5C and 6.5 degrees
C/km. Currently SPC has a marginal risk in this area for severe
storms this afternoon and evening, while WPC has a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall which seems fair at this time given some
competing factors. If future runs of the CAMs show more of an
active set up this afternoon with storms moving over the same
area, a short-fused flood watch may be needed for portions of
the area.

High pressure starts to build in tonight and dew points will
lower a bit, especially from the Twin Tiers northward into the
upper 50s and lower 60s, so it will feel a bit more comfortable.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to the upper 60s
with some patchy valley fog. The surface high will be overhead
Wednesday morning and slides to the east in the afternoon. An
upper-level shortwave starts to approach from the west and this
can lead to an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon
and evening with the heating of the day. Highs Wednesday are
expected to be in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
240 AM Forecast...

An upper level trough will pass to the north Wednesday night through
Thursday night. Scattered showers will be possible overnight into
early Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with some
weak instability present. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase
Thursday afternoon as coverage becomes a bit more widespread. Model
guidance are showing at least 1000 to 1500 J/kg for CAPE values,
though there is some uncertainty on how unstable the environment can
become if skies stay mostly cloudy through the early parts of the
day. 0-6km bulk shear is being modeled at 20 to 30 kts. Typically
with the CAPE and shear values mentioned, that would be enough for
some strong storms but some other ingredients, such as mid-level
lapse rates, are not too impressive. Still, Thursday looks to be the
most active day during the second half of the week, so it will be
worth monitoring how the forecast trends in upcoming days.

With the loss of daytime heating, the environment will quickly
become more stable late Thursday evening. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will linger into the first half of the
overnight hours. A ridge begins to build into the region and brings
drier air from the west. This should help cut off any lingering
showers/storms late Thursday night.

Low temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday nights will be in the
60s. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s on
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
240 AM Forecast...

The end of the week and start of the weekend will be mostly dry,
though pop-up afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also be
possible due to daytime heating. Showers and storms could be
enhanced Saturday by a weak cold front but there is uncertainty when
that occurs. Deterministic guidance have an upper trough/low over
Central US and Canada but the placement of this differs. The ECMWF
is further east and pushes that feature along with the surface front
eastward much earlier than other guidance. These timing differences
lead to uncertainty with temperatures and precipitation chances into
early next week. For this update, NBM was favored which also gave
shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures will be in the 80s Friday but then some 90s will be
possible in valley locations on Saturday. Temperatures then trend
slightly cooler heading into early next week, though daytime
temperatures will remain in the 80s. If the ridge remains present
over the region longer into the weekend, then temperatures could be
higher than forecasted headed into early next week. Either way, it
will shape up to be a warm and muggy weekend as dewpoints will be in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Varying conditions will be in place across the terminals early
this morning ranging from VFR to IFR as a cold front slowly
pushes south and east. If pockets of clearing can last long
enough, there can be some areas of valley fog that form which
can lead to brief bouts of IFR or worse visibility, but
confidence is low with the varying cloud decks that will be
moving through.

Mid-to-late morning through this evening is expected to feature
mainly VFR conditions for the terminals. The exception is AVP
which will have best chance of seeing afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms develop nearby with a frontal boundary
stalling out close to the region. Any thunderstorm can lead to
brief restrictions.

Outlook...

Late Tuesday night into Wednesday...Some morning low clouds and
fog in the valleys, especially around ELM, otherwise mainly
VFR.

Thursday...Restrictions possible with some showers and
thunderstorms around.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Scattered showers/storms possible and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...DK