


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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380 FXUS61 KBGM 080641 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 241 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Not as warm, but still humid across Central NY today while Northeast PA remains warm and steamy with the best chance of afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms. Turning a little less humid tonight as high pressure builds in. Wednesday will feature just a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm before becoming more active again for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front slowly moving across central NY will continue to gradually push to the south and east this morning before stalling out this afternoon just south and east of NE PA. As the boundary moves through early this morning, there can be an isolated shower over CNY, but all-in-all it will be a largely dry frontal passage. Behind the front, temperatures won`t be nearly as high today with highs across much of CNY in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but dew points are expected to remain in the mid 60s to nearly 70 degrees in some places, so it will still feel on the humid side. Across NE PA and the southern Catskills, it will still be warm and steamy this afternoon with dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s and high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. The heat and humidity will help to destabilize the area this afternoon and with the stalled front not far away, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to pop up through the early evening. There is some uncertainty in terms of how widespread the coverage of the convection is this afternoon and evening among the high-res models, with the HRRR and RRFS being the most active and even brings a shower/storm into the Southern Tier, there is the potential for any thunderstorm to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds. PWATs in this area this afternoon range from 1.75 to locally over 2.00 inches with uni- directional wind vectors which suggest the potential for some training. Interestingly, despite the very moist environment, model soundings are not quite as saturated as one would expect through the whole column. In terms of instability, SBCAPE is projected to range from 1500-2000 J/kg with about 25-30 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. Low-level lapse rates look pretty decent, but mid-level lapse rates are marginal, between 5C and 6.5 degrees C/km. Currently SPC has a marginal risk in this area for severe storms this afternoon and evening, while WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall which seems fair at this time given some competing factors. If future runs of the CAMs show more of an active set up this afternoon with storms moving over the same area, a short-fused flood watch may be needed for portions of the area. High pressure starts to build in tonight and dew points will lower a bit, especially from the Twin Tiers northward into the upper 50s and lower 60s, so it will feel a bit more comfortable. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to the upper 60s with some patchy valley fog. The surface high will be overhead Wednesday morning and slides to the east in the afternoon. An upper-level shortwave starts to approach from the west and this can lead to an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening with the heating of the day. Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the 80s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 240 AM Forecast... An upper level trough will pass to the north Wednesday night through Thursday night. Scattered showers will be possible overnight into early Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with some weak instability present. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday afternoon as coverage becomes a bit more widespread. Model guidance are showing at least 1000 to 1500 J/kg for CAPE values, though there is some uncertainty on how unstable the environment can become if skies stay mostly cloudy through the early parts of the day. 0-6km bulk shear is being modeled at 20 to 30 kts. Typically with the CAPE and shear values mentioned, that would be enough for some strong storms but some other ingredients, such as mid-level lapse rates, are not too impressive. Still, Thursday looks to be the most active day during the second half of the week, so it will be worth monitoring how the forecast trends in upcoming days. With the loss of daytime heating, the environment will quickly become more stable late Thursday evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger into the first half of the overnight hours. A ridge begins to build into the region and brings drier air from the west. This should help cut off any lingering showers/storms late Thursday night. Low temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday nights will be in the 60s. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 240 AM Forecast... The end of the week and start of the weekend will be mostly dry, though pop-up afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also be possible due to daytime heating. Showers and storms could be enhanced Saturday by a weak cold front but there is uncertainty when that occurs. Deterministic guidance have an upper trough/low over Central US and Canada but the placement of this differs. The ECMWF is further east and pushes that feature along with the surface front eastward much earlier than other guidance. These timing differences lead to uncertainty with temperatures and precipitation chances into early next week. For this update, NBM was favored which also gave shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be in the 80s Friday but then some 90s will be possible in valley locations on Saturday. Temperatures then trend slightly cooler heading into early next week, though daytime temperatures will remain in the 80s. If the ridge remains present over the region longer into the weekend, then temperatures could be higher than forecasted headed into early next week. Either way, it will shape up to be a warm and muggy weekend as dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Varying conditions will be in place across the terminals early this morning ranging from VFR to IFR as a cold front slowly pushes south and east. If pockets of clearing can last long enough, there can be some areas of valley fog that form which can lead to brief bouts of IFR or worse visibility, but confidence is low with the varying cloud decks that will be moving through. Mid-to-late morning through this evening is expected to feature mainly VFR conditions for the terminals. The exception is AVP which will have best chance of seeing afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms develop nearby with a frontal boundary stalling out close to the region. Any thunderstorm can lead to brief restrictions. Outlook... Late Tuesday night into Wednesday...Some morning low clouds and fog in the valleys, especially around ELM, otherwise mainly VFR. Thursday...Restrictions possible with some showers and thunderstorms around. Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday...Scattered showers/storms possible and associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DK NEAR TERM...DK SHORT TERM...BTL LONG TERM...BTL AVIATION...DK