


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
524 FXUS61 KBGM 062317 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 717 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A more active weather pattern returns early this week as a hot and humid airmass remains over the region. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday with heavy downpours that could produce localized flash flooding. Drier weather arrives on Wednesday as high pressure builds back into the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 240 PM Update Warm and muggy conditions are expected overnight with lows dipping only to the mid-60s to lower 70s. Tomorrow should start off dry, but clouds increase and eventually showers and thunderstorms become likely by the afternoon and evening hours as a cold front drops down from Canada. Warm, tropical moisture will be pushing north into the area and PWATs will likely exceed 2 inches by tomorrow afternoon. Forecast soundings are showing long skinny CAPE profiles with 2000 J/kg and a warm cloud depth approaching 15K feet. Efficient warm rain processes are looking likely in any showers and storms tomorrow and rainfall rates may exceed 2"/hour. Also, Corfidi vectors around 10-15 knots indicate that some back building/training thunderstorms will be possible. These storms can produce locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. At this time, the most favorable area for thunderstorms with torrential downpours will be across the northwestern half of our CWA...in Finger Lakes Region and into Syracuse as the cold front slowly sags southeastward tomorrow afternoon. Also, the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal could enhance the rain and t`storm potential as that slow moving front sinks SE across the area late in the day. WPC has our area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. At this time, confidence is not high enough in anyone location to warrant a flood watch, but this will certainly be something to watch closely. SPC also has a marginal risk for isolated severe storms with damaging winds, across the NW half of the CWA Monday afternoon & evening. Soundings show 1500 to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE, 25 kts of 0-6km shear and over 800 J/kg of DCAPE...so we will need to watch for any better organized storms that may produce strong, gusty to isolated damaging winds as well. Showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into tomorrow night, but any severe thunderstorm potential will wane after sunset. Finally, temperatures tomorrow could top out in the 90s in some urban areas. Depending on the timing of the showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, heat index values could exceed 95F in urban areas. However, decided to hold off on another heat advisory for now, due to the uncertainty of timing for those showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 245 PM Forecast... The short term will remain active with a broad trough set up over the Great Lakes region with SW flow aloft. Tuesday, precipitable water values remain over 1.5 with ensemble means of 1.75 to 2.0 inches which is close to 3 standard deviations above climatology. Models indicate that there will be a stalled frontal boundary in the region but its placement is still uncertain. Storms will mostly be concentrated along that front through most of the day with a concern for localized flash flooding with high rainfall rates. Most models have trended towards the front making it through most of the region and stalling more in NEPA into Southern New England so that is the main area of concern. The front looks to move south of the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with surface high pressure building in. While Wednesday starts off dry, a warm front tries to lift north with increasing chances if rain showers and thunderstorms moving in from the south through the day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 250 PM Forecast... The long term remains active with SW flow continuing. Thursday has a more potent shortwave moving through with ensemble mean shear still around 20 to 25 knots with CAPE >500 J/kg though deterministic models are more aggressive with shear with the 500 mb jet passing overhead. Headed into the weekend, the broad long wave trough remains over the central US keeping the Northeast under SW flow and frequent short wave trough passage. Chances of precipitation remain high each afternoon Friday through Sunday with plenty of moisture and instability for through passages to take advantage of. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR at NY TAF sites through most of the TAF period. However, indications are present for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to form near KSYR around 19Z then move southeast to other sites between 20-23Z. The window for each site looks to be a couple hours or so. Uncertainity is too high at this time to add thunder. For KAVP, any thunderstorm chances hold off till after the TAF period. However, a deck of MVFR clouds is still likely to move in from the ocean overnight and last into the mid-morning hours. Outlook... Monday night: Any showers and thunderstorms should end by 03z then mainly VFR. Tuesday through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers or a thunderstorm. Thursday and Friday... Restrictions possible with some showers and thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ015>018-023- 025-036-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM SHORT TERM...AJG LONG TERM...AJG/JTC AVIATION...MWG