317
WTNT42 KNHC 061450
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Recently, a convective burst has developed near the center of Beryl
in the northwestern quadrant, and the low-level center is for the
moment no longer exposed.  Tail Doppler radar data from the NOAA
aircraft suggests that the cyclone has become better aligned
vertically during the past few hours, likely due to the effects of
this burst.  Reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that the central pressure is now near 997 mb,
with the Air Force plane reporting severe turbulence in the
convection. The initial intensity remains 50 kt for this advisory
based on the flight-level and SFMR wind data from the two aircraft.

The initial motion is 300/10 kt.  Water vapor imagery shows a
developing mid-latitude trough over the central United States that
is opening a break in the subtropical ridge over Texas.  Beryl is
expected to turn northwest later today, then turn northward by
48-60 h into the break, with the center making landfall on the
Texas coast. Recurvature to the northeast is subsequently expected
after 72 h.  The forecast guidance has not changed much since the
previous advisory, and the new forecast track is basically an update
of the previous track.  The new track lies between the main
consensus models and the HCCA corrected consensus model.

Beryl remains in an area of about 15 kt of southerly vertical
shear, and water vapor imagery shows mid- to upper-level dry air
over the southern semicircle of the cyclone.  This combination
suggests the possibility that the current convective burst will
weaken later today.  After 24 h, the shear is forecast to diminish,
and the intensity guidance is in good agreement that significant
strengthening should occur.  Based on this, the intensity forecast
shows only modest strengthening during the first 24 h, followed by
intensification to hurricane strength before landfall in Texas.
The peak intensity is based on the HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A and HAFS-B
guidance.  After landfall, Beryl is expected to weaken, with
the system forecast to decay to a remnant low pressure area by
120 h.

It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 48
hours is about 70 miles and the average intensity error is close to
one category.  Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties
when using the forecast information.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge along portions of the lower and middle
Texas coast late Sunday into Monday, where Hurricane and Storm Surge
Watches are in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for
portions of deep south Texas and additional warnings will likely be
required later today. Interests in these areas should follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
considerable, is likely across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 23.0N  92.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 23.7N  93.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 24.9N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 26.2N  96.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 27.7N  96.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 29.3N  96.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  09/1200Z 30.9N  96.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  10/1200Z 33.5N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  11/1200Z 36.5N  90.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven