820
AXNT20 KNHC 162244
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jul 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from
04N to 20N moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated small showers
are near the wave axis south of 09N. The remainder of the wave
is surrounded by Sahara Air Layer dust that is inhibiting
convection.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 63W
south of 21N. Its is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are over water within 60 nm either
side of the wave south of 14N. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 60 nm west of the wave over Venezuela
from 09N to 11N.

The tropical wave that earlier had its axis along 89W south of
19N moved inland Central America this morning. Its southern
portion extends into the eastern Pacific. Please refer to the
eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion for details on this
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of NW Mauritania near 21N17W and continues southwestward to
10N29W, to 10N43W and northwestward to near 14N52W. An ITCZ
is analyzed south of the monsoon trough from 05N39W northwestward
to 07N50W and to near 12N60W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm south of the trough between 26W and 30W, between
35W and 38W. Similar activity is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ
between 57W and 58W and between 59W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Relatively weak high pressure is present over the basin as a weak
1019 mb high center is analyzed at 29N87W. The associated
gradient is supporting a generally light to gentle anticyclonic
wind flow. Seas as observed in the latest buoy reports and as
seen in a recent altimeter satellite data pass are in the slight
range.

A surface trough extends from northeast Florida southwestward
to Tampa, Florida and to the eastern Gulf near 25N85W. Increasing
scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and within 60 nm
west of the trough from 25N to 28N. Similar activity is over the
interior portions of central and SW Florida. The atmosphere
remains very moist and unstable throughout supporting scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over waters north of 25N.

For the forecast, weak pressure ridging will extend from the
Atlantic westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico into the
weekend, supporting moderate or weaker winds and mainly slight
seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may move offshore of
western Cuba into the lower Straits of Florida and over a portion
of the southeastern Gulf this evening accompanied by possible
gusty winds and rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the west-
central Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in South America
is allowing for fresh trade winds in the south-central part of
the sea to near the coast of Colombia. A pocket of fresh to
strong NE trade winds is embedded within the fresh winds from 11N
to 13N between 75W and 77W as noted in the most recent ASCAT
satellite data pass across this part of the sea. Seas over these
waters are in the 7 to 10 ft range. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are over
the north-central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere in the basin.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over the
northwest part of the sea north of 19N, including sections
of western Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge extending along 30N-31N and lower pressure across
South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds
over the central Caribbean before diminishing slightly Thu
through Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from near 31N27W southwestward to
25N60W. No significant convection is occurring with this
trough. Another trough extends from near 31N62W southwestward
to near 25N70W. An upper-level low moving westward is identified
on water vapor imagery near 26N68W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted from 22N to 29N between 64W and
68W. Otherwise, a 1026 mb high center is analyzed near 31N49W. A
ridge stretches west-southwestward from the high to central
Florida, and continues westward across the Gulf of Mexico. The
pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics is sustaining moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds from 15N to 24N and between 38W and 60W.
Seas over these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge will
extend west-southwestward to Central Florida into the weekend.
Winds are forecast to increase to fresh over the southeastern
waters Wed night through early Fri as the high pressure drifts
westward and strengthens some, and a tropical wave moves through
tropical Atlantic waters. Look for winds to pulse to fresh to
strong each evening offshore of the N coast of Hispaniola Thu
through Sat.

$$
Aguirre