972
AXNT20 KNHC 110602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jul 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is well west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands near 31W from 16N southward, and moving west
around 15 kt. Hindered by Saharan Dust in the vicinity, no
significant convection is seen near this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 23N southward,
and moving westward around 10 kt. Influenced by dry Saharan Dust,
no significant convection is seen near this wave.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 60W from 25N southward,
and moving westward at 15-20 kt. Being enveloped by much drier air
at both low and mid levels, there is no significant convection.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from near western
Cuba southward to eastern Honduras. It is moving westward at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 12N to 14N east 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N33W to
11N43, and from 11N58W. Scattered moderate convection from 08N to
11N between 13W and 18W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough extends from the western Florida panhandle to 26N95W.
Weak 1018 mb high pressure is centered over the eastern Gulf near
28N86W. The routine evening trough is forming over the west coast
of the Yucatan. No significant convection is active currently.

For the forecast, the current weather pattern will continue
during the next several days, supporting moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW
Yucatan.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer pass confirmed fresh to strong trade winds
off the coast of Colombia, between a tropical wave approaching the
eastern Caribbean, and a tropical wave moving into Central
America, and high pressure north of the area. Combined seas are 8
to 10 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas dominate elsewhere, except for 2 to 4 ft over the northwest
Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is active south of
central Cuba, associated with divergence aloft near an upper
trough.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will
support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central and
SW Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Winds may pulse to
near gale at night off NW Colombia. Seas will peak near 10 ft
during the strongest winds. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are
forecast for the NW Caribbean, increasing to fresh speeds at night
in the Gulf of Honduras, the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage
tonight through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough off the southeastern U.S. coast from near Charleston,
South Carolina to 28N73W is currently producing scattered showers
and thunderstorms off the northern Bahamas offshore waters.
Farther east, a broad subtropical ridge associated with a
Azores- Bermuda High is promoting gentle to moderate winds across
the basin west of 35W. Seas are 3-5 ft west of 65W, north of 29N
between 25W and 65W, and also offshore of northeastern South
America. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail east of 35W, except
fresh to strong from offshore Africa from near the Canary Islands
to the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 6-8 ft across the area of
fresh to strong winds, and 5-7 ft across the remainder of the
waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface trough off NE Florida will sustain
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the next few
days, west of 70W. Winds will increase to strong speeds east of
the trough, north of 29N, Thu night into Fri. Gentle to moderate
E-SE winds elsewhere will reach moderate to fresh speeds tonight
into Sat night due to a strengthening Azores-Bermuda High and
the passage of two tropical waves over the eastern and central
Caribbean. Locally strong winds and rough seas are likely for
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola adjacent waters Thu night into Sat.


$$
Christensen