413
AXNT20 KNHC 121730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jul 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning
for the CANARAIS marine zone near the Canary Islands through
13/03Z. Expect NE winds to Force 8 with seas to 10 ft. Please
visit website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W from
20N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 60W from 21N
southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 09N to 14N between 58W and 64W, including
across Barbados, northeastern Venezuela, and most of the
Windward Islands. Heavy showers may produce flooding in low-
lying areas during the rest of the afternoon. The 1200 UTC Upper
Air Soundings from Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago assisted in
the analysis of the wave position this morning.

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from 21N
southward, moving westward around 15-20 kt. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic across the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W to 08N34W. The ITCZ continues from 08N34W
to 08N57W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted along the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1019 mb high pressure centered near 27N90W provides for fair
conditions across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are light to gentle
and seas are 1-3 ft. Scattered showers are noted in the south-
eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of
Mexico through the forecast period, supporting mainly moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up
each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on a
tropical wave approaching the eastern Caribbean with significant
convection.

Satellite scatterometer data from this morning depicts fresh to
locally strong trades, with seas of 6-8 ft, in the central
Caribbean. Elsewhere, trades are gentle to moderate, with 4-6 ft
seas.

For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will
support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central and
southwestern Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Winds may
pulse to near gale force at night off NW Colombia tonight. Seas
will peak near 10 ft tonight and Sat night. Gentle to moderate
northeast to east winds are forecast for the northwest Caribbean,
pulsing to fresh speeds at night in the Gulf of Honduras, the lee
of Cuba, and the Windward Passage through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Pleas see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a
Gale Warning in the far E Atlantic near the Canary Islands.

Scattered showers and tstorms are evident on satellite imagery
across the Bahamas, South Florida, and NE Florida. This disturbed
weather is associated with a surface trough that extends from
31N80W to Cape Canaveral, FL. Fresh to strong S winds are east of
the trough, north of 28N between 76W and 79W.

Elsewhere, the Bermuda High dominates remaining forecast waters.
The strength of the high pressure is supporting moderate to fresh
trades south of 24N east of 64W, with mainly moderate trades
elsewhere. An area of 8-9 ft seas is from 20N to 25N between 57W
and 63W. Seas are 4-7 ft elsewhere in open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
off the coast of NE Florida will continue to support scattered to
numerous thunderstorms over the waters mainly north of the
Bahamas today as it lifts northward. The low pressure centered
north of the area along the trough is expected to move inland
over the Carolinas this afternoon. Fresh to strong south winds N
of 30N between 75W and 78W will diminish late tonight.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue across
the southeast waters into the weekend, where seas will build to
9 ft. Locally strong winds and rough seas are likely for
Hispaniola adjacent waters from this afternoon through Sat night

$$
Mahoney