019
FXUS63 KARX 191712
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1212 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Valley fog This morning. Rivers will continue to fall. High
  pressure will keep the area dry through tonight.

- An upper level trough will linger across the area for the
  weekend and much of next week. Diurnal showers and storms will
  be seen mainly during the afternoon and evening. With weak
  shear and limited instability, not anticipating organized
  severe weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Through Tonight...

The combination of light winds and low level moisture has
resulted in the development of valley fog. This fog is most
prevalent in the Mississippi tributaries. There is still some
uncertainty on whether this fog will impact KLSE or not. This
fog should rapidly dissipate between 830 am and 930 am.

During the late morning and afternoon, there will likely be
scattered diurnal cumulus. With the soundings showing a rather
warm layer between 800 and 600 mb, kept the forecast dry.

Saturday through Next Week...

An upper level trough will move southeast into the region on
Saturday and linger over the area through Monday. Another upper
level low will drop southeast into this trough on Tuesday. This
trough will linger over the area into Thursday and then eject
east as the western upper level ridge builds east into the
Mississippi River Valley. This trough will produce diurnal
showers and storms. The highest rain chances look to be on
Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Shear remains weak and slightly
below-normal temperatures will limit instability. The CSU
Severe Probability forecasts remain very low across the region,
so not expecting any organized severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions are favored to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Only potential exception looks to be fog at LSE tomorrow morning
but probability is too low for a mention with this update.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Ferguson