134
FXUS63 KAPX 121432
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1032 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional convection this afternoon n central and ne lower
  MI. A stronger storm possible.

- Multiple chances for thunderstorms, mainly Saturday night
  through early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A few light showers will continue to linger around parts of the area
through the morning hours as a wave works eastward across the lower
peninsula. Many areas will likely stay dry this afternoon,
especially across northwest lower. The best chances for pop-up
showers and storms later today will come across northeast lower
where locally higher dewpoints behind potential lake breeze
formation may be enough to support convective initiation. Isolated
activity will be possible elsewhere, but diurnal heating may mix out
the boundary layer enough to prevent storms from forming. With a
general lack of deep-layer shear (<25 kts 0-6km BWD), any storms are
expected to be unorganized and are unlikely to produce severe
weather. The primary hazards with isolated/scattered storms this
afternoon will be small hail, lightning, and locally heavy downpours
with slow storm motions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Pattern/Synopsis: High pressure centered from eastern lower MI
down to Lk Erie. This high only drifts eastward, with ridging
lingering across central/southern lower MI into tonight. Aloft,
a sharp 500mb trof axis is overhead and will also drift
eastward, before ejecting across Lk Huron this evening.

Forecast: Some hints of fog/stratus on satellite this morning,
mainly near Lake MI. Still some opportunity for this to expand
over the next few hours. After that, mid-July sun will have no
difficulty in eroding any fog/stratus. There are some patchy
mid- clouds in central lower MI. Still waiting for some of these
to spring a shower or two; elevated instability is present, but
to this point we`ve stayed dry since midnight.

Yesterday did not go as planned, with convection in nw lower
and eastern upper MI, where little was expected. Inherited
forecast also focuses on n central/ne lower MI...but today that
/should/ work out better. 500mb heights will see relatively
sharp rises in the west and north by midday, as the upper trof
moves slowly east. In addition, a limited convective lake
shadow looks to develop near Lake MI with weak synoptic sw
flow. Little Cape is progged in the west and north today. In ne
lower MI, with converging lake breezes and associated moisture
pooling, MlCape values should reach (and perhaps exceed) 1k
j/kg. Wind fields are weak and so is shear, so any t-storms will
be pulsy and unorganized. But instability should be sufficient
for a stronger storm or two this afternoon, if probably not
severe.

Do have a small chance for a shower to pop even to start the
morning, with some leftover mid-level Cape present. Those
chances get higher by midday, thru the afternoon and into early
evening, in n central and ne lower MI. Precip will dwindle
faster today, by mid-evening, as height rises push into ne lower
MI.

Another somewhat muggy night, under initially clearing skies
and light winds. Patchy fog and stratus will again return
overnight, especially near the big/cooler lakes.

Max temps today near 80f to lower 80s. Lows tonight upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Pattern Forecast: Warmer and uncomfortably humid conditions are
expected through early next week as higher heights build across the
region. Upper level disturbances moving through the flow may spark
showers and storms, particularly Sunday and Monday. A cold front
then ushers in noticeably cooler conditions for the second half of
next week.

Forecast Details: No big changes to the forecast this cycle with
very warm and humid conditions expected through Monday. This is due
to the north/eastward expansion of the ridge currently scorching the
southwestern states. Being on the northern periphery of the upper
level ridge, the Great Lakes region will be open to the possibility
of mesoscale convective complexes (mcs) making a run at the area. So
after a mainly shower free Saturday (can`t totally rule out a pop up
shower or storm), there could be a few rounds of convective activity
as early as Saturday night with the window of opportunity likely
remaining open through Monday night. There is even the possibility
of a few strong to severe thunderstorms including heavy rainfall.
Northern stream troughing then drags a surface cold front across the
region during the late Monday night or Tuesday time frame bringing
noticeably cooler and less humid conditions. In the meantime, very
warm and uncomfortably humid conditions are expected through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 658 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Morning fog/stratus (mainly at PLN) will burn off over the next
1-2 hours. Isolated showers are starting to pop as well, west of
TVC/MBL and also north of APN. The chance for these will
increase as we head into this afternoon, in particular for APN.
Mostly VFR conditions are otherwise expected into this evening.
Late tonight, some fog could return again, especially at
PLN/MBL.

Light winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJC
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JZ