Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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958 FXUS63 KAPX 060345 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of showers and storms continue into tonight. - A few lingering showers and thunderstorms the remainder of this Holiday weekend. - Perhaps more organized and impactful showers and storms to kick off next work week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 923 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Vertically-stacked low pressure continues to slowly meander thru Lower Michigan late this evening. Resulting convection has significantly diminished in both intensity and areal coverage as the instability axis ahead of the low shifts eastward out of Northern Lower Michigan and with the loss of diurnal instability with sunset. What remains is scattered showers with a few isold storms...and expect this general coverage of POPs will persist thru the overnight hours as the low continues to slowly push east thru Lower Michigan. SPC has taken our entire CWA out of marginal risk for svr storms...and certainly agree with this move. Overnight lows will cool into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: The main weather maker in the short-term continues to be a longwave trough and its associated deepening low pressure. This feature will support the continued development of showers/ storms across Northern Michigan into tonight. The aforementioned low is expected to depart the forecast area later tonight. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Details: Scattered showers across parts of northern Michigan will continue to expand in coverage from west to east this afternoon. Some storms have already begun to pop up with the main threats possible being large hail, damaging winds, and lightning. Aforementioned showers will become scattered to isolated for tonight. Patchy fog will be possible early Saturday morning as a weak pressure rises move into the region along with light/ calm winds. Temperatures will dip into the high 50s to low 60s for tonight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Entire mid-range guidance suite and ensemble envelope remains remarkably consistent...featuring broad mid/upper level troughing dominating Great Lakes weather well into next week downstream of rather potent western NOAM heat dome/upper level ridge axis. This continues to support no prolonged periods of heat an additional shower/storm concerns through the entirety of the long term period. Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Shower/thunderstorm potential and temperature trends through the period. Details: Looking at diurnally-enhanced showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two Saturday as lingering low level moisture and pockets of enhanced low level convergence work in tandem with an uncapped atmosphere. Not expecting coverage to get too out of hand given exit of primary mid level support...and with limited cape through the mid levels and weak shear profiles think any storms will remain below severe limits. More of the same on Sunday, although likely with even less areal shower coverage as low level moisture further thins and mid level support becomes even less supportive with passing of shortwave ridging. Focused areas of low level convergence along lake breezes and terrain fluctuations will be key to any isolated shower and storm development. Otherwise, Sunday looks rather pleasant...with mostly to partly sunny skies and highs back up into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Still looking at potentially more active weather heading into Monday and Tuesday as passing shortwave troughs interact with an increasingly moisture rich low and mid level environment. Magnitude and timing of deep layer support for rain generation continues to remain in question...although will say latest guidance trends are definitely weaker with forcing mechanisms. Definitely could see a few stronger storms with some brief heavy rain potential, but as of now just not seeing any real evidence for significant severe weather concerns or widespread heavy rain. Trends are for definitely less active weather as we head later into next week...with decaying moisture profiles and evidence of high pressure building into the region. Temperatures through the week will fall well within the range of what is considered normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Vertically-stacked low pressure will slowly meander thru and out of Lower Michigan overnight into Saturday...continuing to producing scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms as it does so. Prevailing conditions will be mainly low VFR/MVFR overnight into Saturday morning. Surface winds will shift to the N/NW AOB 10 kts behind the low. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MLR SHORT TERM...NSC LONG TERM...MSB AVIATION...MLR