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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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423 FXUS63 KAPX 191413 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1013 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Somewhat warmer today into this weekend and beyond. - Small chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms Saturday into next week, especially across eastern upper and northeast lower. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1013 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Well folks, it doesn`t get much better than this... a true summertime gem in store for us today! Current forecast remains on track with surface high pressure more or less parked right above the Great Lakes, keeping things dry for most (still may get a highly isolated shower in the eastern Yoop) as high temps warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s amid light westerly to southwesterly flow. Please see the Short Term discussion for more details. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Pattern/synopsis: 1022mb high pressure is over northern IL, and will remain anchored over the central and southern lakes region into tonight. Forecast: Low-level cold advection has departed eastward, replaced with neutral thermal advection into tonight. Surface obs this early morning have shown a touch of fog at a site or three (MBL and SJX most commonly). There should be little hindrance to strong surface heating today, and in general am expecting less cloud cover overall (especially in northern lower MI). Cu development is more likely in eastern upper, where a relatively warm Lake MI will contribute low-level moisture. Maybe, maybe we can muster 100-200j/kg of SbCape in the interior of eastern upper this afternoon. A stray shower up there this afternoon isn`t completely out of the question. Tonight, an e-w oriented cold front backdoors southward across Superior. An associated band of enhanced moisture will result in increasing cloud cover overnight in eastern upper MI, especially Chippewa Co. Limited clouds otherwise. Highs today upper 70s to around 80f, with some coastlines cooler. Lows tonight also a bit milder, 50s inland to 60-65 beaches. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A general uneventful mid-summer pattern is expected to remain in place across northern Michigan through much if not all of the long term. The strong upper level ridge of high pressure ("heat dome") across the Four Corners region is expected to remain anchored in place for at least the next several days leaving shallow troughing across the Great Lakes. This pattern will likely allow for weak moisture starved northern stream short waves to move through the flow from time to time, especially Saturday night and Wednesday. The combination of the weak waves and possible interactions with afternoon lake breezes in combination with instability generated from heating of the day could promote the formation of a few afternoon and early evening showers and storms. This could occur pretty much any day through the long term portion of the forecast. However, some areas will likely receive very little in the way of rainfall (especially across northwest lower). Highs will mainly range from the upper 70s to low 80s (even a few isolated mid 80s) with lows generally ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 731 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 VFR conditions expected across the board with high pressure overhead. Light W to WSW winds (<10kts), perhaps some 15kt gusts at PLN and TVC. Lake breezes expected to develop, likely flipping winds E at APN and potentially shifting winds at CIU as well. Light flow overnight could lead to some returning fog at MBL later tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...HAD SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...JZ/HAD