740
FXUS63 KAPX 191939
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
339 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower chances return to the picture Saturday, moving from the
  eastern U.P. into northern lower with time.

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible at times
  through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

High pressure currently centered over northwest Ohio will slowly
fade south as a weak cold frontal boundary moves through the region.
moisture supply will be heavily confined to mesoscale influences...
in this case, SW flow over Lake Michigan will draw in dewpoints in
the upper 50s to near 60 across the eastern U.P. and tip of the mitt
before better and more concentrated moisture area ahead of the front
advects southward into the region. Lake breeze convergence set to
help contribute to convective initiation across the eastern U.P.
spreading south into the far reaches of northern lower by the end of
the forecast period.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Shower Chances Saturday: Following a dry night tonight with
temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s, shower chances return into
the region as a moisture starved frontal boundary moves through.
Could be a quick start to shower chances across the eastern U.P. as
the front works its way into the Whitefish Bay area. Not expecting
any robust or overly organized convection, but coverage probably
peaks closer to the straits with better diurnal instability. CAPE
values peak somewhere around 500 J/kg, so most of this activity is
probably showers with an embedded rumble of thunder or two. Severe
weather is not expected, though some briefly gustier winds will be
possible during these showers and embedded storms. Expectation is
that coverage diminishes as this activity spreads south and east
into northern lower later in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to pivot across eastern
Canada through the end of this weekend as weak troughing lingers
over the Great Lakes/Mississippi Valley into early next week. With
nearly stationary features aloft for several days, a rather nebulous
surface pattern looks to materialize through much of the period
across a large portion of the country east of the Rockies.

Forecast Details:

Isolated to scattered showers/storms -- Isolated showers may linger
across parts of northern Michigan through Saturday evening as a weak
front sags from north to south across the area. With relatively non-
descript forcing in place through the first half of the week,
additional isolated to scattered showers will be possible across
various parts of the area with non-zero buoyancy in place and no
major frontal passages anticipated. The most likely trigger for
diurnal shower/storm activity will be lake breeze formation
providing sufficient forcing to trigger activity -- mainly east of I-
75. Better chances for showers and storms return to the area during
the second half of the upcoming week. Otherwise, little change in
temperatures is expected through the first half of the week with
highs in the upper 70s/low 80s and overnight lows ranging from the
mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions largely expected to continue into the overnight hours
as high pressure allows for calming winds. Could be some fog that
develops overnight at MBL as east return flow commences later
tonight. Frontal boundary brings chances of showers after 12Z,
mainly for CIU through 18Z Saturday with CIGs dropping to 5,000ft
and potential for temporary drops in visibility. West flow up to
10kts on Saturday, gusting as high as 15-20kts near PLN by 17Z...
with winds flipping NW at CIU as the front passes.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...HAD