352
FXUS63 KAPX 181734
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
134 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain-free weather through the end of the work week.

- Seasonably warm daytime temperatures this weekend into next week.

- Small chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day
  during this weekend and into next week, especially across
  eastern upper and northeast lower.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Synopsis: 12z surface/composite analysis shows a 1025mb surface high
over southwest Minnesota...encompassing the Midwest/upper Great
Lakes region.  Northern Michigan behind a positive tilt upper trough
axis...with deep layer northwest flow across Michigan.  Mid level
thermal trough axis (-16C 500mb temperature off 12z APX sounding)
lies northeast-southwest across the state.  Horizontal roll
convection developing quickly this morning...cool air and warm lakes
have "primed" air parcels so initial heating has allowed Cu to pop
quickly this morning across northern Lower.

Forecast Update: Cu field is expected to thin out some this
afternoon with mixing/deepening of the CBL.  Comfortable afternoon
expected with highs in the lower-mid 70s (5-10 degrees below mid
July normals.)

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

     Perfect mid summer weather today and tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered upstream over
the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley early this
morning. Low level ridging is becoming well established across the
Western Great Lakes region as upstream high pressure begins to nose
into our region. All residual convection from last evening has
dissipated...leaving mainly clear skies across our entire CWA.

High pressure center will drift SE over the next 24 hours...reaching
Illinois by 12Z Friday. Ridging...subsidence and dry air thru the
column will continue to settle into all of Michigan today and
tonight...lending to clear skies and pleasant mid summer temps. High
temps this afternoon will warm into the low to mid 70s...with
overnight lows cooling back into the low to mid 50s. Enjoy!

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The next several days will serve as proof of why a majority of the
people that live here absolutely and unequivocally love the summers
across the north woods. Typical, nearly pristine mid-summer weather
conditions are expected across northern Michigan through much if not
all of the long term forecast (in contrast to the continued high
heat and humidity elsewhere). This will be due to persistent zonal
to slightly cyclonic upper level flow. Heating of the day lake
breeze aided garden variety showers and isolated thunderstorms are
possible each afternoon and early evening but much of the day will
likely remain rain free. The best chances for any convective
activity will reside across eastern upper and northeast lower as per
the normal summer setup. Temperatures are expected to be near to
slightly above seasonal averages through the period. Forecast highs
generally ranging from near 80 to the low 80s (perhaps even a few
mid 80s mixed in) with lows in the mostly comfortable mid 50s to low
60s. Humidity levels should remain fairly comfortable through early
next week before becoming a little more muggy as we head toward the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

No major aviation issues with VFR conditions despite Cu "explosion"
today beneath low level thermal troughing. Diurnal clouds should
thin in coverage through the afternoon...already seeing this
along the lakeshore counties where the areas first to cloud up
this morning are the first to clear this afternoon. Mostly clear
skies/light winds tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JPB