Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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454 FXUS63 KAPX 030012 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 812 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thunderstorms producing locally heavy rain at times tonight. - Trending dry for the Independence Day holiday (Thursday). - Heavy rain and possible stronger storms return for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Increasingly moisture rich southwest flow overspreading the area early this afternoon...with northern Michigan sandwiched between Gulf States centered subtropical ridge and broad troughing slicing east across central Canada into the northern Plains. Initial wing of moisture advection into the region mostly of the elevated type, with stubborn to yield low level dry air remaining the main detriment to more widespread rain this afternoon. Juxtaposition of better deep layer moisture advection and a more unstable atmospheric profile remains just a bit upstream, and that indeed is where the most organized and intense rain has remained. Upstream troughing and embedded shortwave will continue to work east into the western Great Lakes tonight into early Wednesday. Attendant cold front will lead the charge, bringing with it a more organized rain threat tonight. Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Main focus and shower and thunderstorm evolution and possible heavy rain threat tonight. Details: Low level jet forced moisture advection will only increase with time this evening into the overnight, sending precipitable water values to over an inch and a half. Isentropic upglide will become maximized on the nose of this 50+ knot southwest low level jet, with pattern recognition strongly supporting an expanding area of rain within this forced ascent axis. While primary corridor of instability folds south with time, just enough elevated instability looks to remain to produce at least some embedded non-severe thunderstorms. Given available moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere and what appears to be an appreciable warm cloud depth, we should see some rather respectable rainfall rates...especially with any deeper convective cores. Axis and orientation of low level jet argues for a relatively narrow corridor of heavier rain potential. Still some discrepancy where this axis will center itself, but trends generally support tip of the mitt counties into eastern upper Michigan for heaviest rain potential. Wouldn`t be terribly surprised to see an inch or more where this axis lines up. Enough to produce some local ponding on roads and in poor drainage areas, but otherwise no significant impacts expected. Definitely a mild night, with most areas not falling out of the 60s. Front sweeps rapidly east of the area Wednesday morning, ending the rain threat for most in the process. Post-frontal west synoptic flow definitely supports the all to typical lake breeze convergence corridor across central upper Michigan during the afternoon. Lingering moisture looks more than adequate to potentially kick off a few showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms in this region during the afternoon. Post-frontal cold air advection far from impressive, helping temperatures recover into the upper 70s and lower/middle 80s during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Longwave troughing swinging through the area will keep the Great Lakes Region active throughout the long-term. A shortwave trough will track overhead late Thursday night into Friday, increasing higher to mid level clouds ahead of a deepening low pressure system that will track into the region for the weekend. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Independence Day: A shortwave trough will track overhead Thursday evening. Looking at forecast soundings, it appears that the atmosphere will be too dry in the lower levels to support rainfall on Independence Day. However, clouds will build in later in the evening in response to the aforementioned shortwave. Mainly Westerly winds will create a downsloping component across Northeast lower, making temperatures warmer in these areas (mid 80s) compared to elsewhere in Northern Michigan (high 70s to low 80s). - Weekend Precipitation Chances: Attention then quickly turns to a trough and its associated low pressure digging across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes Region for Friday/ Saturday. Current guidance continues to show moderate instability and a relatively deep moisture fetch (PWATS above 1.2") into the region for this weekend. The most favorable day for possible strong to severe? storms to develop will be Friday, but showers are expected to continue through most of the weekend and an embedded rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune these details! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 812 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions are expected this evening before CIGs lower to MVFR/IFR later tonight into Wednesday morning. Scattered showers will continue to work across the area over the next few hours as more steady rainfall works across the northwest half of the area overnight. Temporary drops to MVFR VSBY will be possible in pockets of heavier rainfall. Otherwise, flight conditions look to rise back to VFR Wednesday afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...DJC