805
FXUS64 KAMA 090535
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1235 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The last of the rain from earlier this morning has moved south
and out of all the Panhandles with mostly dry conditions this
afternoon. Monsoon flow from the Four Corners Region may provide
an additional shower or thunderstorm for the far western combined
Panhandles moving in from New Mexico, but otherwise, mostly dry
for the remainder of the Panhandles. Tonight will feature light
and variable winds with mostly clear skies. Lows will range from
the mid 50s in the NW to lower 60s for the southern TX Panhandle.
Monsoon patter continues for tomorrow with a few showers or storms
for the far western Panhandles once again by around the afternoon
and evening hours. But otherwise, dry conditions continue. High
temperatures tomorrow will be about 10 degrees warmer compared to
today with highs ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Low
temperatures tomorrow night will range from the upper 50s to mid
60s.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Wednesday may be the last day of active weather we see for a bit
as models see us hold onto northwesterly upper-level flow for one
more day. This will allow for any activity forming off the
southern Rockies a chances to move over the western Panhandles
during the afternoon and evening hours. However, the window of
opportunity will small with latest giving only a 15 to 20% chances
of storms occurring during the afternoon and early evening. Once
we head into the overnight, however, chances will rapidly diminish
as models see the strong 500mb high over the Great Basin shift
east and pull the Panhandles under its influence. This shift, will
see flow over the Panhandles either turn completely northerly or
nearly stagnate, which will make it hard for the regular afternoon
storms to move across the Panhandles. Expect these drier
conditions to last clear into next week as model agreement has no
expectations of the 500mb high moving or diminishing. Otherwise,
look for temperatures to be on the rise under these dry and
stagnate conditions. Look for most locations to return to the 90s
as early as Wednesday with chances at triple digits by the
weekend.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR conditions are prevailing and are expected to prevail through
the next 24 hours. Winds will shift out of the west this afternoon
then the south by this evening.

Culin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                88  63  91  63 /   0  10  20  10
Beaver OK                  88  62  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              86  58  90  60 /  10  10  10  10
Borger TX                  93  67  96  66 /   0  10  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              90  63  93  64 /   0  20  10  10
Canyon TX                  87  62  90  62 /   0  10  20  20
Clarendon TX               88  63  92  64 /   0   0  10  10
Dalhart TX                 87  59  91  59 /  10  10  20  10
Guymon OK                  88  59  93  61 /   0  10  10  10
Hereford TX                88  62  90  63 /   0  20  20  20
Lipscomb TX                89  64  95  65 /   0   0  10  10
Pampa TX                   87  64  92  63 /   0  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                89  63  94  65 /   0   0  10   0
Wellington TX              90  64  95  66 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...28