909
FXUS64 KAMA 101138
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
638 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

One more day of showers and storms in the forecast before we go dry
for the remainder of the week. As the region remains under northwest
flow aloft, situated between the upper trough to our east and the
upper ridge to our west, additional showers and storms will develop
across portions of New Mexico and move into mainly the western
Panhandles once again this afternoon and evening. While severe
storms are not expected as shear is rather meager across the region,
it will be possible for any storm to become strong with wind gusts
being the main concern thanks to enough DCAPE available(at least
1600 J/kg). In addition, with recent rainfall in the western
Panhandle, these could bring a risk for locally heavy rain and flash
flooding. Storms should diminish through the evening, maybe linger
just a little in the late night hours.

Heights begin to rise from the west on Thursday as the upper ridge
expands to the east. This will effectively cut off our chances for
rain on Thursday and temperatures will increase a few more degrees.
Highs on both Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid to upper
90s.

Culin

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

We`ve been fooled by models before this summer, but the general
consensus hasn`t budged that we`ll be back to warm and dry
weather for several days this weekend into next week. Rising
heights, weak flow aloft, and depleting moisture will continue to
squash our precipitation chances as upper level ridging settles
in. Confidence is high that temperatures in the 90s to low 100s
can be anticipated Friday through Tuesday. Winds will remain on
par for July, about 10-20 mph out of the south-southwest each day.
There are some indications however, that moisture/rain may return
by mid next week, around Tue-Wed at the earliest. Despite upper
flow remaining weak, the 00z suite of global models have come into
fair agreement that moisture will come back in spades by midweek.
If this can occur in conjunction with any passing disturbances, a
wetter pattern may reappear. But this is an early trend with a
wide margin of error, so don`t get hopes up for rain quite yet.
We`ll continue to monitor this trend moving forward, but in the
meantime, will try to hone in on any days with higher triple digit
temperature potential.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions are prevailing and will continue today. Showers and
storms are possible this afternoon and evening in the western
Panhandle. This may affect KAMA and KDHT after 22Z. Confidence is
not high just yet about affecting a site so have included VCSH for
now. Otherwise, winds will remain around 5-10kts, initially out of
the southwest  to the southeast.

Culin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                93  66  94  66 /  20  30  10  10
Beaver OK                  94  65  96  67 /  10   0   0  10
Boise City OK              91  62  93  64 /  10  10   0   0
Borger TX                  98  68 100  70 /  10  10   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              94  65  96  66 /  20  30   0   0
Canyon TX                  91  64  92  64 /  20  30  10  10
Clarendon TX               92  66  94  67 /  10  20  10   0
Dalhart TX                 92  60  94  62 /  20  20   0   0
Guymon OK                  94  63  96  66 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                92  63  93  64 /  30  30  10  10
Lipscomb TX                95  66  97  69 /  10  10   0  10
Pampa TX                   93  65  95  67 /  20  10   0  10
Shamrock TX                94  66  96  67 /  10  10  10   0
Wellington TX              96  67  97  69 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...28