Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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986 FXUS64 KAMA 141731 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The latest 08Z satellite analysis still shows the center of the main 596 decameter anti-cyclonic feature centered over the Four Corners Region with its extend of large scale UL subsidence well to the east into the southern High Plains. This does include the Texas Panhandle. With that said, southwesterly winds becoming more southerly this afternoon will advect +30C to +32C for the NE combined Panhandles near the most pronounced area of UL subsidence. Along with Palo Duro Canyon, the northeastern combined Panhandles is where the highest probabilities of reaching and/or exceeding 105 degrees this afternoon is expected, in which headlines for Heat exist this afternoon. For the remainder of the Panhandles, high temperatures this afternoon will range from 99 to 104 degrees. Going into tomorrow, some of the latest 14/00Z model and numerical data shows the main center of the H500 high pressure system slowly shift south along the AZ/NM stateline. If this result holds true, more of the H500 northwesterly component to the wind will be introduced. Some of the convection that develops along the NM/CO high terrain may reach the far NW Panhandles by late tomorrow afternoon with a brief shower or storm. But confidence does not exceed 20% chance of occurrence at this time. The continued weather pattern of heat, with additional headlines is likely for a good percentage of the combined Panhandles is expected tomorrow afternoon. High temperatures tomorrow will range from 100 to 108 degrees. Meccariello && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 High pressure to our west should loosen its grip on the Panhandles, allowing a cold front to slide towards the area on Tuesday. The question for Tuesday is how far south will the front progress before stalling? This will have an impact on temperatures and precipitation chances for the day. More aggressive guidance such as the NAM show the front marching through the area, keeping high temperatures in the low 90s. Other models such as the Euro and GFS show the front losing steam and stalling over the Panhandles, allowing temps to climb right back to the triple digits. Doubts exist regarding how much dry air will intrude behind the front, but models agree adequate moisture should be in place for precipitation chances. A minor shortwave disturbance looks to ride the ridge across the region and take advantage of whatever moisture may be available along and behind the front later Tuesday evening. Given decent confidence amongst guidance, have left the NBM POPs of 30-60% across the northern Panhandles during the evening to overnight hours. Again, the focus for peak convective potential will likely depend on placement of the front. If a drier post frontal airmass exists though, current precipitation probabilities may be over inflated altogether. Looking ahead to midweek, similar questions linger about how much moisture is going to stick around from day to day. Northwest flow aloft as the ridge retreats would favor additional shots at showers and storms through the day Wednesday, as there may be another reinforcing front to provide additional moisture to the region. Either way, temperatures will be markedly cooler Wednesday onward, with highs in the 80s to low 90s currently forecast through the weekend. Model agreement drastically declines beyond Wednesday, but we might be able to look forward to daily rain and storm chances to mitigate any increasing drought concerns that may arise. Harrel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies. South southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots are expected through the period with occasional gusts up to 25 knots during the late morning and afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 102 72 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 105 75 107 72 / 0 0 0 10 Boise City OK 103 70 103 68 / 10 10 10 20 Borger TX 107 75 109 75 / 0 0 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 105 71 105 72 / 0 0 0 10 Canyon TX 99 69 101 71 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 99 72 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 103 67 103 67 / 0 0 0 10 Guymon OK 105 72 106 70 / 0 10 10 10 Hereford TX 100 68 103 71 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 105 75 107 74 / 0 0 0 10 Pampa TX 101 72 103 73 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 101 72 103 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 102 72 104 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-008>010- 317. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ002>005- 007>010-317. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ002-003. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...07