515
FXUS64 KAMA 142356
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
656 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Broad area of 597dm high pressure centered just east of the Four
Corners continues to dominate weather across the region. Northeast
winds aloft and warm H5 temperatures have kept the area mostly
cloud free, and the extra insolation has resulted in another day
with temperatures around 98 to 105 degrees across the area. Dew
points in the low 60s across the south have taken some time to mix
out, but it seems to be happening as of 18z as values are now
mostly in the mid 50s. The highest probability of hitting 105+
will be across the northeast TX Panhandle up into Beaver County,
just ahead of a stalled outflow boundary that moved in from
overnight convection across the northern plains. Thus, have
continued the heat advisory that was issued on the previous shift.
Palo Duro Canyon has continued the trend of staying within one
degree of KAMA with southwest winds helping to mix out the
"furnace effect" of the canyon. That said, it will probably still
get close to 105 degrees by peak heating, plenty warm enough for
heat impacts for anyone that might attempt to hike in the heat.
Thunderstorms are currently developing along the Sangre De Cristo
and San Juan Mountains, but the unfavorable steering winds should
keep mountain convection out of the area. The only caveat would
be if a brief storm could develop along the outflow in the far
northwest zones late this afternoon. Overall chances of seeing
lightning or measurable precip are very low (<10%).

A similar story is expected tomorrow even though the H5 heights do
start to weaken as a shortwave crosses the northern plains.
Despite this, models and ensembles are insistent that 850mb
temperatures will be warmer tomorrow along with max surface
temperatures. The latest HREF probabilities range from 70 to 100%
for temperatures of at least 105 degrees extending from the
northeast zones, through the Canadian River Valley, and from Palo
Duro Canyon into the southeast zones. A few HREF members (along
with global ensembles) are hitting 110+ in Beaver County, and
really close to 110 in parts of the Canadian River Valley which
match closer to the MAV statistical output (MET slightly cooler).
Have gone ahead with the issuance of a heat advisory for these
areas, knowing that the southeast extent of the area may not quiet
reach criteria but heat impacts should be there regardless,
especially considering dew points should be elevated into the mid
50s to lowers 60s which could lead to some heat index impacts,
including Palo Duro Canyon. By tomorrow evening, an anomalously
cool cold front begins its journey south out of east-central
Canada as a broad trough ejects across the northern plains and
Great Lakes Region. This will help to retrograde and weaken the
upper high that has been in control across our area, and it may
retrograde enough by evening to allow for some storm activity to
move off the mountains into the northwest zones. Some models even
bring activity as far south as the central TX Panhandle after 06z,
but moisture will be limited. Gusty winds would be possible given
inverted-V soundings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The upper level high pressure is expected to continue to
retrograde Tuesday into Wednesday, putting the area in northwest
flow aloft. Meanwhile, an unseasonably strong cold front will be
moving through the midwest with a broad surface high settling in
over the OH Valley region by Wednesday. It looks like an initial
wind shift will arrive in the northern combined Panhandles on
Tuesday (possibly augmented by outflow from storms Monday night
into Tuesday morning), but the main "backdoor" cold front won`t
arrive until Wednesday. With increasing monsoonal moisture in the
mid levels, and increasing low level moisture behind the front,
PWATs will be on the rise to 90th percentile or higher. Models
have gone back and fourth with timing and placement of shortwaves
in the flow, but it seems like storm activity will be on the
increase especially late Tuesday into Wednesday, with additional
chances into the weekend. Severe storms and flooding certainly
can`t be ruled out, especially with any stalled boundaries that
may setup. Some models have suggested large CAPE values behind the
front on Wednesday, and while flow is not expected to be strong
aloft, veering profiles will promoted modest effective shear. Of
course, the devil will be in the details and even though there are
several ensemble members suggesting very benificial rains, there
are still plenty of things that can go wrong (like poor timing of
shortwaves or frontal position). The good news is that below
normal temperatures (e.g. highs in the 80s) look to hang out
across a good chunk of the southern plains well into next weekend
and potentially into the following week.

Ward

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours with winds mainly out of the south in the 10-15kt range.
Isolated showers possible near the KGUY/KDHT terminals for the
next couple hours, but probabilities too low to note.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                72 102  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  75 107  72  97 /   0   0  10   0
Boise City OK              70 103  68  94 /  10  10  20  20
Borger TX                  75 109  75 103 /   0   0  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              71 105  72 102 /   0   0  10  10
Canyon TX                  69 101  71  99 /   0   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               72 102  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 67 103  67  97 /   0   0  10  10
Guymon OK                  72 106  70  96 /  10  10  10  10
Hereford TX                68 103  71 101 /   0   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                75 107  74 100 /   0   0  10   0
Pampa TX                   72 103  73  98 /   0   0  10  10
Shamrock TX                72 103  73 103 /   0   0   0  10
Wellington TX              72 104  74 103 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-008>010-
     317.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ002>015-
     018>020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...89