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FXUS64 KAMA 180529
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Today, an upper-level ridge is in the process of retrograding from
New Mexico more toward the Four Corner states intersection, causing
northwesterly flow aloft. Forecast models show negative 700mb theta-
e advection moving in from southern Kansas and western Oklahoma
through this afternoon into the Panhandles. Given that, and the lack
of a significant forcing mechanism this afternoon, thinking that the
NBM`s PoPs are far too high. Have lowered PoPs in the eastern half
of the combined Panhandles to less than 10%. Meanwhile, convection
has already begun to develop along the Rockies and should move east
or east-southeasterly through this afternoon. This evening, flow
aloft turns more northerly which will favor more of a
southeasterly storm motion. This may cause any convection that
moves off the higher terrain to stay west and south of the
Panhandles. However, have left PoPs in for the western combined
Panhandles in case storms can make it into the area. If so, there
is a low chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm. Models show
MLCAPE as high as 500-1500 J/kg with modest but sufficient shear
for storm organization. Winds up to 60 mph would be possible along
with small hail. Again, though, there is merely a low chance for
a strong to severe thunderstorm which is also conditional upon
thunderstorms making it into the western combined Panhandles. PoPs
tonight, and especially after Midnight, were again too high given
the lack of a significant forcing mechanism and continued
negative 700mb theta-e advection.

Thursday, flow aloft again starts northwesterly but turns northerly
in the afternoon. This would keep any convection that develops on
the higher terrain out of the CWA. Forcing will be very weak, but
it`s not out of the realm of possibilities that flow aloft may
become diffluent enough to force some thunderstorms north of the
Panhandles or in the northern combined Panhandles. However,
confidence is very low.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The main monsoon pattern with the main H500 high centered within
the Four Corners Region will dictate the weather pattern
throughout the long term forecast period. Going through the coming
weekend into early next week, as the main UL sinusoidal synoptic
patter becomes quite exaggerated across the central CONUS, in-conjunction
with H500 high to the west, a deep positivity tilted and/or cut
off low over the mid Mississippi River valley will aid the H500
north and northwesterly flow. This will aid showers and
thunderstorm chances for all of the Panhandles, especially late
this weekend into early next week. High temperatures will be at or
slightly below average throughout the long term forecast period.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Isolated nocturnal rain showers and thunderstorms continue to
impact the panhandles this morning. There is a low chance that any
terminal will be impacted by these with the most likely being
KAMA which has a storm heading to it that could arrive around 1 to
1:30 am. Conditions even with rain showers and thunderstorms will
likely remain VFR although brief reductions to MVFR cannot be
ruled out. This afternoon and evening may see further rain showers
and thunderstorms form and impact the panhandles with a low
chance of hitting any terminal. Of all the terminals KDHT has the
highest chance to be impacted by these afternoon to evening
storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                89  66  92  66 /  10  20  10  40
Beaver OK                  88  63  92  65 /  10  20  10  40
Boise City OK              87  61  92  62 /  30  10  20  40
Borger TX                  94  68  97  68 /  10  20  10  40
Boys Ranch TX              91  66  95  65 /  20  20  10  40
Canyon TX                  88  64  91  65 /  10  20  20  30
Clarendon TX               88  65  91  67 /  10  10  10  20
Dalhart TX                 88  62  93  62 /  30  20  10  40
Guymon OK                  88  62  93  64 /  20  20  10  40
Hereford TX                89  66  93  65 /  20  20  20  40
Lipscomb TX                88  65  92  66 /  10  10  10  30
Pampa TX                   88  64  91  66 /  10  10  10  40
Shamrock TX                90  65  92  67 /  10  10  10  20
Wellington TX              92  65  93  68 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98