083
FXUS61 KALY 060600
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearby frontal boundary will drift northward as a warm
front overnight, bringing some showers and thunderstorms. A
weakening cold front will bring additional showers and
thunderstorms Saturday, especially during the morning. The front
will move east of the region by Sunday, with fair weather
returning. Despite the frontal passage, very warm temperatures
will continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 2 AM EDT...Muggy conditions continue across the
region this morning with temperatures remaining primarily in the
70s with upper 60s at higher elevations. Eastern New York and
western New England remain dry with this update, though some
showers and thunderstorms are ongoing around our region. Showers
and thunderstorms remain expected later this morning. Few
changes were necessary with this update outside of minor
adjustments to temperatures and PoPs to maintain consistency
with latest obs and trends. All else remains steady with
additional details in the previous discussion below.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
As of 1030 PM EDT, yet another warm and very muggy night
continues across eastern NY and western New England. The heavy
rain over Litchfield County has finally exited and all flood
advisories have been canceled. With additional rain and storms
expected early Saturday morning, renewed flooding from lower
rainfall amounts is possible in NW CT as this region is now
saturated. Otherwise, widespread broken to overcast clouds and
continued southerly flow aloft will keep temperatures steady in
the 70s overnight with dew points in the low to mid 70s.

We will continue to monitor a small area of convection that is
now pushing east of I-81 and could reach our eastern Catskill
zones by Midnight or so. Not expecting severe weather but
thunderstorms can produce heavy downpours given the very moist
environment (00 UTC ALY sounding shows our freezing level over
15kft!). Continue to show chance POPs for areas east of the
Hudson through 06 UTC to account for these showers/storms.
Until these showers/storms arrive, we will continue to have a
dry break.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Heat Advisory for mid Hudson Valley region 1 PM to 8 PM EDT
Saturday...

Aforementioned disturbance should track across the region
during Saturday morning. Latest CAMs suggest area of heaviest
rain and embedded convection may track from Schoharie
County/Mohawk Valley region into Saratoga/Glens Falls and and
southern VT during the morning. HREFs suggest 50-70% probability
for rainfall amounts of >1 inch/3 hours in this region, along
with ~10% for 3 inches/3 hours. SB CAPES should remain under
1000 J/kg, however can not rule out some stronger wind gusts
reaching the surface, especially closer to or just south of
I-90.

The core of this feature should shift northeast of the region
during the afternoon. However, the tail end of this disturbance
may trigger additional showers/thunderstorms for areas mainly
south and east of Albany during the afternoon. HREF mean MU
CAPES exceed 2000 J/kg across the mid Hudson Valley into NW CT
with 25-30+ KT of 0-6 km shear. Will have to watch for
strong/isolated severe thunderstorms within these areas.

Additional isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms could
redevelop across the Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks toward
sunset, closer to actual surface cold front approaching.
However, significant mid level dry air may limit coverage.

High temperatures should reach 85-90 in valley areas and mid 70s
to lower/mid 80s in higher terrain areas. Heat Indices may reach
the mid to upper 90s across portions of the mid Hudson Valley
during the afternoon hours, especially as dewpoints reach the
mid 70s. Dewpoints may drop off across the Capital Region and
Mohawk Valley during the afternoon hours in the wake of morning
disturbance, which may keep heat indices slightly lower.

Some evening showers/storms may linger across SE areas Saturday
evening, followed by some clearing skies. Patchy fog could form
in some areas which receive prior rainfall. Lows in the mid 60s
to around 70, except for some 50s across the SW Adirondacks.

Mostly sunny skies expected for Sunday, with slightly less humid
conditions in the wake of weak cold front. It will remain very
warm, however, with max temps still reaching 85-90 in most
valley areas and upper 70s to lower 80s across higher
elevations. Mostly clear Sunday night, with lows mainly in the
60s for valleys and 50s across higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fair and very warm for Monday, with high temps reaching the mid
80s to lower 90s. Heat indices could approach the mid 90s across
portions of the mid Hudson Valley.

Humidity levels increase Monday night into Tuesday ahead of next
incoming cold front for midweek. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage, with best chances during the
afternoon/evening hours Tuesday into Wednesday. There is
increasing uncertainty regarding whether the front slows down
and/or dissipates near the region later next week. Should this
occur, chances for showers/thunderstorms will persist into
Thursday and Friday, along with above normal temperatures and
fairly high humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mixture of VFR/MVFR conditions continue this morning at
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF with some occasional IFR cigs at KPSF.  Expect
some deterioration to IFR cigs/vsbys at KGFL/KPSF ahead of a
prefrontal disturbance this morning which will bring some showers
and thunderstorms to all the TAF sites between 10Z-15Z/SAT.  MVFR
conditions at KALB/KPOU will lower to low MVFR/brief IFR in the
showers and thunderstorms. Expect IFR/low MVFR conditions to
continue at KGFL/KPSF.  In the wake of the disturbance, expect
MVFR/low VFR conditions to return in the late morning into the early
to mid afternoon.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible with the cold
front in the mid pm into the early evening.  PROB30 groups were used
to time the thunderstorms with MVFR cigs/vsbys in the 20Z-24Z time
frame for KGFL/KPOU...and 21Z to 01Z/Sun for KALB/KPSF.  Later TAF
issuance can further refine the window.  Expect a return to high
MVFR or VFR cigs in the wake of the front after 00Z/SUN.

The winds will be light and variable at 5 KT or less to calm this
morning. The winds will be southerly at 5-10 KT in the late morning
into the afternoon.  The winds will shift to west to southwest in
shortly before or just after 00Z/SUN.


Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As a disturbance tracks across the region late tonight into
Saturday morning, unusually high moisture content (PWAT`s
approaching/exceeding 2 inches) will allow for locally heavy
downpours to occur. Should multiple rounds of heavy downpours
occur in any given location, ponding of water in urban/poor
drainage and low lying areas would be possible, along with
possible isolated flash flooding.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ059-060-064-065.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL
NEAR TERM...Gant/Speciale
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...KL