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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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776 FXUS61 KALY 200737 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 337 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and quiet weekend is on tap for most of eastern NY and western New England, with temperatures warming back above normal and only a slight chance of a shower or storm each day. Better chances of showers and thunderstorms will arrive areawide by early next week, along with more humid conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure currently across western NY will broaden out and weaken today, through conditions should remain quiet and dry for most with increasing mid to high level clouds from the south. These clouds are associated with strengthening southwest flow and a weak disturbance over Appalachian Mountains. This disturbance will move across the Mid Atlantic through tonight, and may drive some diurnal and terrain-forced showers and storms mainly over areas along and south of Interstate 90 this afternoon and evening. Latest CAMs are a bit more aggressive on these chances than previous runs, so have upped POPs to around 20- 30% for the aforementioned areas, especially across the Catskills. Morning lows should drop into the upper 40s to low 50s for terrain, with mid 50s to low 60s for valley locations. Patchy fog will be possible mainly for areas north of Interstate 90 where less cloud cover is favored. Afternoon highs will be warmer compared to Friday with increasing 925- 850 hPa temperatures. Expect PM highs to range from the upper 70s in terrain to mid 80s in valleys and lower elevations. For tonight, lingering showers and storms across the southern CWA will weaken, with dry conditions prevailing. A weak front dropping south across the ADKs may promote an isolated rain shower overnight, though moisture and forcing is lacking so confidence is low on chances. Look for lows to be warmer with clouds on the increase, with values ranging from the 50s in terrain to mid 60s in valley locations. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The weak front dropping south from the ADKs will become more diffuse and weaken as it moves across the area Sunday. Some weak forcing leftover from the front and a nearby upper level jet may promote isolated diurnally driven showers and storms during the afternoon and evening. However, it should remain dry for most with PM highs ranging from the 70s (terrain) to upper 80s (valleys). Dewpoints should remain confined to the upper 50s to low 60s, keeping humidities low. Overnight lows will range from the 40s/50s (terrain) to low 60s (valleys) with a weak high building into the area. Flow will switch from northwest to southwest late Sunday night into Monday, allowing for warmer air and moisture to slowly build into the region to start the work week. The departing high should keep dry conditions prevailing areawide, though a slight chance of a PM shower or storm exists mainly for the mid Hudson Valley thanks to pockets of CVA embedded in the southwest flow aloft. PM highs Monday will be warmer, and will range from the upper 70s (terrain) to upper 80s (valleys). Lows Monday night will only drop into the upper 60s, especially for valley locations. Humidity levels will be more noticeable as dewpoints climb into the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An active pattern looks to set up through much of the long term period as a stationary surface boundary extends over much of the Northeast on the downstream flank of a positively-tilted upper trough over the Midwest. A series of weak impulses moving along the boundary will yield multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms, peaking in coverage with diurnal heating each afternoon and evening. Latest NAEFS guidance maintains precipitable water values some 1-2 standard deviation above normal, suggesting that showers and storms may be capable of locally heavy rainfall throughout the period. The parent trough may finally exit to the east on Friday, potentially ending the workweek may on a drier note. Temperatures through the period remain near or slightly above normal with persistently elevated humidity. Afternoon highs Tuesday through Friday look to remain steady in the upper 60s to upper 70s in high terrain and upper 70s to upper 80s at lower elevations, while overnight lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s are expected across the region each night. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...Largely VFR conditions are expected at all terminals. A weak disturbance will past to the south of the region, bringing increased coverage of cirrus at 20-25 kft through the overnight period and into Saturday. While cirrus steadily increases from the south, clear skies will linger the longest at GFL, with patchy fog possible later tonight, especially from 08-12Z Sat, which may yield intermittent IFR or MVFR vsbys. Any vsby restrictions will quickly diminish following sunrise. Otherwise, sct-bkn low clouds at 4-5 kft are expected at all terminals beneath the persistent cirrus deck. Rain showers in the vicinity of POU this afternoon, most likely around 20-24Z Sat, may result in MVFR vsbys if they pass over the terminal. Otherwise, VFR cigs and unrestricted vsbys are expected at ALB/GFL/PSF. Calm winds tonight will increase out of the southwest at 5-10 kt after 14-16Z Sat at all terminals, and will subsequently diminish to 5 kt or less after 00Z Sun. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speck NEAR TERM...Speck SHORT TERM...Speck LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...Picard